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Homeboyz vs Chemelil Sugar — FKF Premier League 2018

Homeboyz
Homeboyz
FT
2 – 0
Chemelil Sugar
Chemelil Sugar
4/7/2019FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 21Bukhungu Stadium (Kakamega)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Homeboyz55%
×Draw27%
Chemelil Sugar18%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Homeboyz
1.45
Chemelil Sugar
0.71

Homeboyz creates 104% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 48 away

creates per match

Homeboyz
1.40
Chemelil Sugar
0.58

allows per match

Homeboyz
0.85
Chemelil Sugar
1.50

finishing

Homeboyz+0.00on par
Chemelil Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Homeboyz ↓

Chemelil Sugar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Homeboyz or draw
82%
Homeboyz or Chemelil Sugar
73%
Draw or Chemelil Sugar
45%

Winning margin

Homeboyz wins by 2+
28%
Chemelil Sugar wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Homeboyz 1+ goals
77%
Homeboyz 2+ goals
42%
Homeboyz 3+ goals
18%
Chemelil Sugar 1+ goals
51%
Chemelil Sugar 2+ goals
16%
Chemelil Sugar 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Homeboyz (draw refunded)
75%
Chemelil Sugar (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Homeboyz at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.85 · 144 matches

Chemelil Sugar away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.50 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Homeboyz attack 1.40 + Chemelil Sugar defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.45

Chemelil Sugar attack 0.58 + Homeboyz defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Homeboyz scores more
55%
level
27%
Chemelil Sugar scores more
18%

Homeboyz at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Homeboyz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Homeboyz 2–0 Chemelil Sugar

Homeboyz beat Chemelil Sugar 2-0 in FKF Premier League on April 7, 2019.

The match was played at Bukhungu Stadium (Kakamega).