Chemelil Sugar 2–0 Homeboyz: Result & Stats

Chemelil Sugar

FT

2 – 0

Homeboyz

10/1/2018

FKF Premier League · Round 33Chemelil Sports Complex (Chemelil)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Chemelil Sugar30%

×Draw29%

Homeboyz40%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chemelil SugarExpected goals in this matchHomeboyz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.99

1.19

Chemelil Sugar

0.99

Homeboyz

1.19

Homeboyz creates 20% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 146 away

0.84

creates per match

1.19

1.20

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Chemelil Sugar

0.84

Homeboyz

1.19

allows per match

Chemelil Sugar

1.20

Homeboyz

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chemelil Sugar+0.00on par

Homeboyz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chemelil Sugar ↓

Homeboyz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Chemelil Sugar or draw

60%

Chemelil Sugar or Homeboyz

71%

Draw or Homeboyz

70%

Winning margin

Chemelil Sugar wins by 2+

11%

Homeboyz wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Chemelil Sugar 1+ goals

63%

Chemelil Sugar 2+ goals

26%

Chemelil Sugar 3+ goals

8%

Homeboyz 1+ goals

70%

Homeboyz 2+ goals

33%

Homeboyz 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Chemelil Sugar (draw refunded)

43%

Homeboyz (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chemelil Sugar at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.20 · 50 matches

Homeboyz away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.15 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chemelil Sugar attack 0.84 + Homeboyz defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.99

Homeboyz attack 1.19 + Chemelil Sugar defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Chemelil Sugar scores more

30%

level

29%

Homeboyz scores more

40%

Homeboyz at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Homeboyz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff