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Chemelil Sugar vs Homeboyz — FKF Premier League 2018

Chemelil Sugar
Chemelil Sugar
FT
1 – 2
Homeboyz
Homeboyz
10/26/2019FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 7Chemelil Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Chemelil Sugar31%
×Draw29%
Homeboyz39%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chemelil Sugar
0.99
Homeboyz
1.15

Homeboyz creates 16% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 146 away

creates per match

Chemelil Sugar
0.84
Homeboyz
1.19

allows per match

Chemelil Sugar
1.11
Homeboyz
1.15

finishing

Chemelil Sugar+0.00on par
Homeboyz+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chemelil Sugar ↓

Homeboyz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Chemelil Sugar or draw
61%
Chemelil Sugar or Homeboyz
71%
Draw or Homeboyz
69%

Winning margin

Chemelil Sugar wins by 2+
12%
Homeboyz wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Chemelil Sugar 1+ goals
63%
Chemelil Sugar 2+ goals
26%
Chemelil Sugar 3+ goals
8%
Homeboyz 1+ goals
68%
Homeboyz 2+ goals
32%
Homeboyz 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Chemelil Sugar (draw refunded)
44%
Homeboyz (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chemelil Sugar at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.11 · 57 matches

Homeboyz away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.15 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chemelil Sugar attack 0.84 + Homeboyz defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.99

Homeboyz attack 1.19 + Chemelil Sugar defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Chemelil Sugar scores more
31%
level
29%
Homeboyz scores more
39%

Homeboyz at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Homeboyz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chemelil Sugar vs Homeboyz

Homeboyz beat Chemelil Sugar 2-1 in FKF Premier League on October 26, 2019.

The match was played at Chemelil Sports Complex in Chemelil.