Holstein Kiel 0–1 Hertha BSC: Result & Stats

Holstein Kiel

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Hertha BSC

11/29/2025

2. Bundesliga · Round 14Holstein-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Holstein Kiel42%

×Draw23%

Hertha BSC35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Holstein KielExpected goals in this matchHertha BSC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.53

Holstein Kiel

1.69

Hertha BSC

1.53

Holstein Kiel creates 10% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 51 away

1.63

creates per match

1.69

1.37

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Holstein Kiel

1.63

Hertha BSC

1.69

allows per match

Holstein Kiel

1.37

Hertha BSC

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Holstein Kiel+0.00on par

Hertha BSC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Holstein Kiel ↓

Hertha BSC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Holstein Kiel or draw

65%

Holstein Kiel or Hertha BSC

77%

Draw or Hertha BSC

58%

Winning margin

Holstein Kiel wins by 2+

21%

Hertha BSC wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Holstein Kiel 1+ goals

82%

Holstein Kiel 2+ goals

50%

Holstein Kiel 3+ goals

24%

Hertha BSC 1+ goals

78%

Hertha BSC 2+ goals

45%

Hertha BSC 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Holstein Kiel (draw refunded)

54%

Hertha BSC (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Holstein Kiel at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.37 · 119 matches

Hertha BSC away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.76 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Holstein Kiel attack 1.63 + Hertha BSC defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.69

Hertha BSC attack 1.69 + Holstein Kiel defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Holstein Kiel scores more

42%

level

23%

Hertha BSC scores more

35%

Holstein Kiel at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Holstein Kiel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff