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Holstein Kiel vs Hertha Berlin — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Holstein Kiel
Holstein Kiel
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Hertha Berlin
Hertha Berlin
9/24/20232. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 7Holstein-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Holstein Kiel42%
×Draw23%
Hertha Berlin35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Holstein Kiel
1.69
Hertha Berlin
1.53

Holstein Kiel creates 10% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 51 away

creates per match

Holstein Kiel
1.63
Hertha Berlin
1.69

allows per match

Holstein Kiel
1.37
Hertha Berlin
1.76

finishing

Holstein Kiel+0.00on par
Hertha Berlin+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Holstein Kiel ↓

Hertha Berlin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Holstein Kiel or draw
65%
Holstein Kiel or Hertha Berlin
77%
Draw or Hertha Berlin
58%

Winning margin

Holstein Kiel wins by 2+
21%
Hertha Berlin wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Holstein Kiel 1+ goals
82%
Holstein Kiel 2+ goals
50%
Holstein Kiel 3+ goals
24%
Hertha Berlin 1+ goals
78%
Hertha Berlin 2+ goals
45%
Hertha Berlin 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Holstein Kiel (draw refunded)
54%
Hertha Berlin (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Holstein Kiel at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.37 · 119 matches

Hertha Berlin away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.76 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Holstein Kiel attack 1.63 + Hertha Berlin defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.69

Hertha Berlin attack 1.69 + Holstein Kiel defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Holstein Kiel scores more
42%
level
23%
Hertha Berlin scores more
35%

Holstein Kiel at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Holstein Kiel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: Holstein Kiel 2–3 Hertha Berlin

Hertha Berlin beat Holstein Kiel 3-2 in 2. Bundesliga on September 24, 2023.

The match was played at Holstein-Stadion in Kiel.