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Hertha Berlin vs Holstein Kiel — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Hertha Berlin
Hertha Berlin
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Holstein Kiel
Holstein Kiel
3/1/20242. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 24Olympiastadion Berlin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Hertha Berlin40%
×Draw24%
Holstein Kiel35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hertha Berlin
1.54
Holstein Kiel
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 119 away

creates per match

Hertha Berlin
1.55
Holstein Kiel
1.59

allows per match

Hertha Berlin
1.25
Holstein Kiel
1.52

finishing

Hertha Berlin+0.00on par
Holstein Kiel+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha Berlin ↓

Holstein Kiel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Hertha Berlin or draw
65%
Hertha Berlin or Holstein Kiel
76%
Draw or Holstein Kiel
60%

Winning margin

Hertha Berlin wins by 2+
20%
Holstein Kiel wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Hertha Berlin 1+ goals
79%
Hertha Berlin 2+ goals
45%
Hertha Berlin 3+ goals
20%
Holstein Kiel 1+ goals
76%
Holstein Kiel 2+ goals
41%
Holstein Kiel 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Hertha Berlin (draw refunded)
53%
Holstein Kiel (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha Berlin at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.25 · 51 matches

Holstein Kiel away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.52 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha Berlin attack 1.55 + Holstein Kiel defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.54

Holstein Kiel attack 1.59 + Hertha Berlin defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hertha Berlin scores more
40%
level
24%
Holstein Kiel scores more
35%

Hertha Berlin at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hertha Berlin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hertha Berlin vs Holstein Kiel

Hertha Berlin and Holstein Kiel drew 2-2 in 2. Bundesliga on March 1, 2024.

The match was played at Olympiastadion Berlin in Berlin.