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Holstein Kiel vs Hamburger SV — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Holstein Kiel
Holstein Kiel
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV
11/11/20232. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 13Holstein-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Holstein Kiel37%
×Draw24%
Hamburger SV39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Holstein Kiel
1.51
Hamburger SV
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 119 home / 119 away

creates per match

Holstein Kiel
1.63
Hamburger SV
1.74

allows per match

Holstein Kiel
1.37
Hamburger SV
1.39

finishing

Holstein Kiel+0.00on par
Hamburger SV+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Holstein Kiel ↓

Hamburger SV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Holstein Kiel or draw
61%
Holstein Kiel or Hamburger SV
76%
Draw or Hamburger SV
63%

Winning margin

Holstein Kiel wins by 2+
18%
Hamburger SV wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Holstein Kiel 1+ goals
78%
Holstein Kiel 2+ goals
44%
Holstein Kiel 3+ goals
19%
Hamburger SV 1+ goals
79%
Hamburger SV 2+ goals
46%
Hamburger SV 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Holstein Kiel (draw refunded)
49%
Hamburger SV (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Holstein Kiel at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.37 · 119 matches

Hamburger SV away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.39 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Holstein Kiel attack 1.63 + Hamburger SV defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.51

Hamburger SV attack 1.74 + Holstein Kiel defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Holstein Kiel scores more
37%
level
24%
Hamburger SV scores more
39%

Hamburger SV at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Hamburger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Holstein Kiel vs Hamburger SV

Holstein Kiel beat Hamburger SV 4-2 in 2. Bundesliga on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Holstein-Stadion in Kiel.