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Hamburger SV vs Holstein Kiel — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Holstein Kiel
Holstein Kiel
3/18/20232. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 25Volksparkstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Hamburger SV48%
×Draw23%
Holstein Kiel29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hamburger SV
1.81
Holstein Kiel
1.36

Hamburger SV creates 33% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 119 away

creates per match

Hamburger SV
2.10
Holstein Kiel
1.59

allows per match

Hamburger SV
1.13
Holstein Kiel
1.52

finishing

Hamburger SV+0.00on par
Holstein Kiel+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamburger SV ↓

Holstein Kiel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Hamburger SV or draw
71%
Hamburger SV or Holstein Kiel
77%
Draw or Holstein Kiel
52%

Winning margin

Hamburger SV wins by 2+
26%
Holstein Kiel wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Hamburger SV 1+ goals
84%
Hamburger SV 2+ goals
54%
Hamburger SV 3+ goals
27%
Holstein Kiel 1+ goals
74%
Holstein Kiel 2+ goals
39%
Holstein Kiel 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Hamburger SV (draw refunded)
62%
Holstein Kiel (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamburger SV at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.13 · 119 matches

Holstein Kiel away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.52 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamburger SV attack 2.10 + Holstein Kiel defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.81

Holstein Kiel attack 1.59 + Hamburger SV defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Hamburger SV scores more
48%
level
23%
Holstein Kiel scores more
29%

Hamburger SV at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Hamburger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: Hamburger SV 0–0 Holstein Kiel

Hamburger SV and Holstein Kiel drew 0-0 in 2. Bundesliga on March 18, 2023.

The match was played at Volksparkstadion in Hamburg.