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Hamburger SV vs Holstein Kiel — DFB Pokal 2018

Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Holstein Kiel
Holstein Kieladvanced
12/3/2025DFB PokalDFB Pokal · Round of 16Volksparkstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hamburger SV21%
×Draw20%
Holstein Kiel60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hamburger SV
1.27
Holstein Kiel
2.27

Holstein Kiel creates 79% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 11 away

creates per match

Hamburger SV
1.00
Holstein Kiel
2.55

allows per match

Hamburger SV
2.00
Holstein Kiel
1.55

finishing

Hamburger SV+0.00on par
Holstein Kiel+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamburger SV ↓

Holstein Kiel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Hamburger SV or draw
40%
Hamburger SV or Holstein Kiel
80%
Draw or Holstein Kiel
79%

Winning margin

Hamburger SV wins by 2+
8%
Holstein Kiel wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Hamburger SV 1+ goals
72%
Hamburger SV 2+ goals
36%
Hamburger SV 3+ goals
14%
Holstein Kiel 1+ goals
90%
Holstein Kiel 2+ goals
66%
Holstein Kiel 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Hamburger SV (draw refunded)
26%
Holstein Kiel (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamburger SV at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Holstein Kiel away — creates 2.55, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamburger SV attack 1.00 + Holstein Kiel defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.27

Holstein Kiel attack 2.55 + Hamburger SV defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Hamburger SV scores more
21%
level
20%
Holstein Kiel scores more
60%

Holstein Kiel at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Holstein Kiel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

DFB Pokal: Hamburger SV 0–0 Holstein Kiel

Hamburger SV and Holstein Kiel drew 0-0 in DFB Pokal on December 3, 2025.

The match was played at Volksparkstadion in Hamburg.