Holstein Kiel vs FSV Mainz 05 — Bundesliga 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 4+ matches
Holstein Kiel20%
FSV Mainz 0560%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
FSV Mainz 05 creates 86% more chances
Season form · 4 home / 114 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over63
- Under37
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes60
- No40
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Holstein Kiel ↓
Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Holstein Kiel at home — creates 0.50, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches
FSV Mainz 05 away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.78 · 114 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Holstein Kiel attack 0.50 + FSV Mainz 05 defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.14
FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.23 + Holstein Kiel defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.12
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 60%?"
FSV Mainz 05 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 60% does not mean "FSV Mainz 05 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
FSV Mainz 05 substitutes
Head to Head
Bayern München
Borussia Dortmund
RB Leipzig
VfB Stuttgart
1899 Hoffenheim
Bayer Leverkusen
SC Freiburg
Eintracht Frankfurt
FC AugsburgFSV Mainz 05
Union Berlin
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Hamburger SV
1. FC Köln
Werder Bremen
FC Schalke 04
SV Elversberg
SC Paderborn 07If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Holstein Kiel host FSV Mainz 05 on Sunday, 24 November 2024 at 14:30. The match is part of the Bundesliga 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Holstein Kiel vs FSV Mainz 05
FSV Mainz 05 beat Holstein Kiel 3-0 in Bundesliga on November 24, 2024.
Goals: N. Amiri (11'), J. Burkardt (37' pen), Lee Jae-Sung (53').
FSV Mainz 05 controlled possession (62%) and registered 18 shots to 7.
The match was played at Holstein-Stadion in Kiel.