Holstein Kiel 2–0 FSV Mainz 05: Result & Stats

Holstein Kiel

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

FSV Mainz 05

S. Müller 64'

A. Ujah 6' (OG)

12/21/2011

DFB Pokal · 3rd RoundHolstein-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Holstein Kiel27%

×Draw25%

FSV Mainz 0548%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Holstein KielExpected goals in this matchFSV Mainz 05

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.55

Holstein Kiel

1.10

FSV Mainz 05

1.55

FSV Mainz 05 creates 41% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

1.00

creates per match

1.70

1.40

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Holstein Kiel

1.00

FSV Mainz 05

1.70

allows per match

Holstein Kiel

1.40

FSV Mainz 05

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Holstein Kiel+0.00on par

FSV Mainz 05+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Holstein Kiel ↓

FSV Mainz 05 →

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Holstein Kiel or draw

52%

Holstein Kiel or FSV Mainz 05

75%

Draw or FSV Mainz 05

73%

Winning margin

Holstein Kiel wins by 2+

10%

FSV Mainz 05 wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Holstein Kiel 1+ goals

67%

Holstein Kiel 2+ goals

30%

Holstein Kiel 3+ goals

10%

FSV Mainz 05 1+ goals

79%

FSV Mainz 05 2+ goals

46%

FSV Mainz 05 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Holstein Kiel (draw refunded)

36%

FSV Mainz 05 (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Holstein Kiel at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

FSV Mainz 05 away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Holstein Kiel attack 1.00 + FSV Mainz 05 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.70 + Holstein Kiel defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Holstein Kiel scores more

27%

level

25%

FSV Mainz 05 scores more

48%

FSV Mainz 05 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FSV Mainz 05 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

A. UjahOwn goal

46'

F. Schönheim← M. Fathi

63'

S. Allagui← J. Baumgartlinger

64'

S. Müller

68'

M. Choupo-Moting← A. Ujah

89'

K. Schulz← R. Kazior

90+1'

F. Wetter← J. Lindner

Holstein

FSV

▼

▼

🥅

▼

⚽

▼

▼

89'▲K. Schulz←▼R. Kazior

90+1'▲F. Wetter←▼J. Lindner

Holstein Kiel substitutes

SchulzWetterSträhleSachsToksözChahedWulff

46'▲F. Schönheim←▼M. Fathi

63'▲S. Allagui←▼J. Baumgartlinger

68'▲M. Choupo-Moting←▼A. Ujah

FSV Mainz 05 substitutes

SchönheimAllaguiChoupo-MotingWetkloPolanskiCaligiuriYilmaz