FSV Mainz 05 2–2 Holstein Kiel: Result & Stats

FSV Mainz 05

AET

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Holstein Kiel

D. Brosinski 101'

V. Fischer 67', 22'

D. Drexler 75' (pen)

K. Schindler 54' (pen)

10/24/2017

DFB Pokal · 2nd RoundOpel Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

FSV Mainz 057%

×Draw12%

Holstein Kiel80%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FSV Mainz 05Expected goals in this matchHolstein Kiel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.78

2.94

FSV Mainz 05

0.78

Holstein Kiel

2.94

Holstein Kiel creates 277% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 11 away

0.00

creates per match

2.55

3.33

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

FSV Mainz 05

0.00

Holstein Kiel

2.55

allows per match

FSV Mainz 05

3.33

Holstein Kiel

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FSV Mainz 05+0.00on par

Holstein Kiel+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FSV Mainz 05 ↓

Holstein Kiel →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–17%

0–211%

0–311%

0–48%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–12%

2–23%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

FSV Mainz 05 or draw

20%

FSV Mainz 05 or Holstein Kiel

88%

Draw or Holstein Kiel

93%

Winning margin

FSV Mainz 05 wins by 2+

2%

Holstein Kiel wins by 2+

61%

Team goals

FSV Mainz 05 1+ goals

54%

FSV Mainz 05 2+ goals

18%

FSV Mainz 05 3+ goals

4%

Holstein Kiel 1+ goals

95%

Holstein Kiel 2+ goals

79%

Holstein Kiel 3+ goals

55%

Draw no bet

FSV Mainz 05 (draw refunded)

8%

Holstein Kiel (draw refunded)

92%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FSV Mainz 05 at home — creates 0.00, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

Holstein Kiel away — creates 2.55, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.00 + Holstein Kiel defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 0.78

Holstein Kiel attack 2.55 + FSV Mainz 05 defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

FSV Mainz 05 scores more

7%

level

12%

Holstein Kiel scores more

80%

Holstein Kiel at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Holstein Kiel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

V. Fischer

FSV Mainz 05 · F

8.5

Match Events

7'

Dominick Drexler

10'

Suat Serdar

22'

V. Fischer↳ D. Brosinski

38'

R. Zentner← R. Adler

49'

Fabian Frei

54'

K. SchindlerPenalty

65'

Y. Muto← A. Maxim

67'

V. Fischer↳ L. Öztunali

74'

A. Seydel← M. Ducksch

75'

D. DrexlerPenalty

80'

D. Peitz← K. Schindler

83'

P. De Blasis← V. Fischer

88'

90'

101'

110'

113'

N. Hoheneder← D. Drexler

115'

Robin Zentner

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FSVHolstein

Overview

52%Possession48%

19Total Shots19

9Corners5

12Fouls28

Shots

19Total Shots19

7On Target11

9Off Target6

3Blocked2

9Inside Box11

10Outside Box8

Passing

52%Possession48%

518Total Passes468

376Accurate Passes321

73%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

9Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls28

3Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

1Offsides2

Match Recap: FSV Mainz 05 vs Holstein Kiel

FSV Mainz 05 and Holstein Kiel drew 2-2 in DFB Pokal on October 24, 2017.

Goals: V. Fischer (22', 67'), K. Schindler (54' pen), D. Drexler (75' pen), D. Brosinski (101').

FSV Mainz 05 controlled possession (52%) and registered 19 shots to 19.

The match was played at Opel Arena in Mainz.

FSV Mainz 05 vs Holstein Kiel — DFB Pokal 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: FSV Mainz 05 vs Holstein Kiel