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Holstein Kiel U19 vs Hannover 96 U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Holstein Kiel U19
Holstein Kiel U19
CANC
10:00
Hannover 96 U19
Hannover 96 U19
1/31/2021U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 10Citti Fussball Park - Projensdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Holstein Kiel U1931%
×Draw21%
Hannover 96 U1947%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Holstein Kiel U19
1.65
Hannover 96 U19
2.06

Hannover 96 U19 creates 25% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 73 away

creates per match

Holstein Kiel U19
1.51
Hannover 96 U19
2.05

allows per match

Holstein Kiel U19
2.08
Hannover 96 U19
1.78

finishing

Holstein Kiel U19+0.00on par
Hannover 96 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Holstein Kiel U19 ↓

Hannover 96 U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Holstein Kiel U19 or draw
53%
Holstein Kiel U19 or Hannover 96 U19
79%
Draw or Hannover 96 U19
69%

Winning margin

Holstein Kiel U19 wins by 2+
15%
Hannover 96 U19 wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Holstein Kiel U19 1+ goals
81%
Holstein Kiel U19 2+ goals
49%
Holstein Kiel U19 3+ goals
23%
Hannover 96 U19 1+ goals
87%
Hannover 96 U19 2+ goals
61%
Hannover 96 U19 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Holstein Kiel U19 (draw refunded)
40%
Hannover 96 U19 (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Holstein Kiel U19 at home — creates 1.51, concedes 2.08 · 61 matches

Hannover 96 U19 away — creates 2.05, concedes 1.78 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Holstein Kiel U19 attack 1.51 + Hannover 96 U19 defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.65

Hannover 96 U19 attack 2.05 + Holstein Kiel U19 defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Holstein Kiel U19 scores more
31%
level
21%
Hannover 96 U19 scores more
47%

Hannover 96 U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Hannover 96 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Holstein Kiel U19 face Hannover 96 U19 (U19 Bundesliga)

U19 Bundesliga returns with Holstein Kiel U19 hosting Hannover 96 U19. Match starts January 31, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Holstein Kiel U19 host Hannover 96 U19 at Citti Fussball Park - Projensdorf.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.