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Hannover 96 U19 vs Holstein Kiel U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Hannover 96 U19
Hannover 96 U19
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Holstein Kiel U19
Holstein Kiel U19
11/2/2025U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 11Eilenriedestadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Hannover 96 U1960%
×Draw19%
Holstein Kiel U1922%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hannover 96 U19
2.54
Holstein Kiel U19
1.50

Hannover 96 U19 creates 69% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 61 away

creates per match

Hannover 96 U19
2.39
Holstein Kiel U19
1.61

allows per match

Hannover 96 U19
1.40
Holstein Kiel U19
2.70

finishing

Hannover 96 U19+0.00on par
Holstein Kiel U19+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hannover 96 U19 ↓

Holstein Kiel U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Hannover 96 U19 or draw
78%
Hannover 96 U19 or Holstein Kiel U19
81%
Draw or Holstein Kiel U19
40%

Winning margin

Hannover 96 U19 wins by 2+
39%
Holstein Kiel U19 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Hannover 96 U19 1+ goals
92%
Hannover 96 U19 2+ goals
72%
Hannover 96 U19 3+ goals
46%
Holstein Kiel U19 1+ goals
78%
Holstein Kiel U19 2+ goals
44%
Holstein Kiel U19 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Hannover 96 U19 (draw refunded)
73%
Holstein Kiel U19 (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hannover 96 U19 at home — creates 2.39, concedes 1.40 · 70 matches

Holstein Kiel U19 away — creates 1.61, concedes 2.70 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hannover 96 U19 attack 2.39 + Holstein Kiel U19 defence 2.70 → ÷2 → 2.54

Holstein Kiel U19 attack 1.61 + Hannover 96 U19 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Hannover 96 U19 scores more
60%
level
19%
Holstein Kiel U19 scores more
22%

Hannover 96 U19 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Hannover 96 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Hannover
Holstein
D. Lottner
Manager: D. Lottner
J. Kaps
Manager: J. Kaps

U19 Bundesliga: Hannover 96 U19 0–3 Holstein Kiel U19

Holstein Kiel U19 beat Hannover 96 U19 3-0 in U19 Bundesliga on November 2, 2025.

The match was played at Eilenriedestadion in Hannover.