Hannover 96 U19 0–1 Holstein Kiel U19

Hannover 96 U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Holstein Kiel U19

B. Nohns 89'

4/3/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 1696 Das Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Hannover 96 U1961%

×Draw18%

Holstein Kiel U1921%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hannover 96 U19Expected goals in this matchHolstein Kiel U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.57

1.48

Hannover 96 U19

2.57

Holstein Kiel U19

1.48

Hannover 96 U19 creates 74% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 62 away

2.41

creates per match

1.58

1.38

allows per match

2.73

creates per match

Hannover 96 U19

2.41

Holstein Kiel U19

1.58

allows per match

Hannover 96 U19

1.38

Holstein Kiel U19

2.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hannover 96 U19+0.00on par

Holstein Kiel U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hannover 96 U19 ↓

Holstein Kiel U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Hannover 96 U19 or draw

79%

Hannover 96 U19 or Holstein Kiel U19

82%

Draw or Holstein Kiel U19

39%

Winning margin

Hannover 96 U19 wins by 2+

40%

Holstein Kiel U19 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Hannover 96 U19 1+ goals

92%

Hannover 96 U19 2+ goals

72%

Hannover 96 U19 3+ goals

47%

Holstein Kiel U19 1+ goals

77%

Holstein Kiel U19 2+ goals

43%

Holstein Kiel U19 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Hannover 96 U19 (draw refunded)

74%

Holstein Kiel U19 (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hannover 96 U19 at home — creates 2.41, concedes 1.38 · 71 matches

Holstein Kiel U19 away — creates 1.58, concedes 2.73 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hannover 96 U19 attack 2.41 + Holstein Kiel U19 defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.57

Holstein Kiel U19 attack 1.58 + Hannover 96 U19 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Hannover 96 U19 scores more

61%

level

18%

Holstein Kiel U19 scores more

21%

Hannover 96 U19 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Hannover 96 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

62'

P. Erfmann← J. de Chatrie Doegl

62'

Y. Diezemann← O. Witt

75'

P. Kruse← B. Opoku Labes

85'

H. Šejto← L. Podolski

85'

B. Nohns← C. Koç

89'

B. Nohns

Hannover

Holstein

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: S. Schmidt

85'▲H. Šejto←▼L. Podolski

Hannover 96 U19 substitutes

ŠejtoKrasniqiHenzeTiernanNdikomSchmidtMeier

Manager: E. Ostermann

62'▲P. Erfmann←▼J. de Chatrie Doegl

62'▲Y. Diezemann←▼O. Witt

75'▲P. Kruse←▼B. Opoku Labes

85'▲B. Nohns←▼C. Koç

Holstein Kiel U19 substitutes

ErfmannDiezemannKruseNohnsKöstekliHundsdorffMeßfeldt