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Holstein Kiel U19 vs Hamburger SV U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Holstein Kiel U19
Holstein Kiel U19
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Hamburger SV U19
Hamburger SV U19
K. Tack 36'
Ismaila Djamanca 47', 30'
9/21/2025U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 7Citti Fussball Park - Projensdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Holstein Kiel U1931%
×Draw21%
Hamburger SV U1948%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Holstein Kiel U19
1.66
Hamburger SV U19
2.09

Hamburger SV U19 creates 26% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 79 away

creates per match

Holstein Kiel U19
1.51
Hamburger SV U19
2.10

allows per match

Holstein Kiel U19
2.08
Hamburger SV U19
1.81

finishing

Holstein Kiel U19+0.00on par
Hamburger SV U19+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Holstein Kiel U19 ↓

Hamburger SV U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Holstein Kiel U19 or draw
52%
Holstein Kiel U19 or Hamburger SV U19
79%
Draw or Hamburger SV U19
69%

Winning margin

Holstein Kiel U19 wins by 2+
15%
Hamburger SV U19 wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Holstein Kiel U19 1+ goals
81%
Holstein Kiel U19 2+ goals
49%
Holstein Kiel U19 3+ goals
23%
Hamburger SV U19 1+ goals
88%
Hamburger SV U19 2+ goals
62%
Hamburger SV U19 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Holstein Kiel U19 (draw refunded)
39%
Hamburger SV U19 (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Holstein Kiel U19 at home — creates 1.51, concedes 2.08 · 61 matches

Hamburger SV U19 away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.81 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Holstein Kiel U19 attack 1.51 + Hamburger SV U19 defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.66

Hamburger SV U19 attack 2.10 + Holstein Kiel U19 defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Holstein Kiel U19 scores more
31%
level
21%
Hamburger SV U19 scores more
48%

Hamburger SV U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Hamburger SV U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'
Ismaila Djamanca
36'
K. Tack
47'
Ismaila Djamanca
Holstein
Hamburger
J. Kaps
Manager: J. Kaps
L. Pfeiffer
Manager: L. Pfeiffer

U19 Bundesliga: Holstein Kiel U19 1–2 Hamburger SV U19

Hamburger SV U19 beat Holstein Kiel U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on September 21, 2025.

Goals: Ismaila Djamanca (30', 47'), K. Tack (36').

The match was played at Citti Fussball Park - Projensdorf in Kiel.