Holstein Kiel U19 0–0 Hamburger SV U19

Holstein Kiel U19

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Hamburger SV U19

11/30/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 13Citti Fussball Park - Projensdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Holstein Kiel U1931%

×Draw21%

Hamburger SV U1948%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Holstein Kiel U19Expected goals in this matchHamburger SV U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

2.09

Holstein Kiel U19

1.66

Hamburger SV U19

2.09

Hamburger SV U19 creates 26% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 79 away

1.51

creates per match

2.10

2.08

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Holstein Kiel U19

1.51

Hamburger SV U19

2.10

allows per match

Holstein Kiel U19

2.08

Hamburger SV U19

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Holstein Kiel U19+0.00on par

Hamburger SV U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Holstein Kiel U19 ↓

Hamburger SV U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Holstein Kiel U19 or draw

52%

Holstein Kiel U19 or Hamburger SV U19

79%

Draw or Hamburger SV U19

69%

Winning margin

Holstein Kiel U19 wins by 2+

15%

Hamburger SV U19 wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Holstein Kiel U19 1+ goals

81%

Holstein Kiel U19 2+ goals

49%

Holstein Kiel U19 3+ goals

23%

Hamburger SV U19 1+ goals

88%

Hamburger SV U19 2+ goals

62%

Hamburger SV U19 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Holstein Kiel U19 (draw refunded)

39%

Hamburger SV U19 (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Holstein Kiel U19 at home — creates 1.51, concedes 2.08 · 61 matches

Hamburger SV U19 away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.81 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Holstein Kiel U19 attack 1.51 + Hamburger SV U19 defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.66

Hamburger SV U19 attack 2.10 + Holstein Kiel U19 defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Holstein Kiel U19 scores more

31%

level

21%

Hamburger SV U19 scores more

48%

Hamburger SV U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Hamburger SV U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

52'

A. Kusyi← M. Meyer

66'

J. Bugaj← J. Ade

72'

B. Asik← V. Lückner

72'

F. Luth← M. Schmitz

72'

O. Medaiyese← A. Buljubašić

83'

Ismaila Djamanca← H. Schümann

83'

L. Akyildiz← C. Nana-Sarhene

90'

K. Tack← I. Matene

90'

Y. Zöllner← K. Kortum

Holstein

Hamburger

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: J. Kaps

52'▲A. Kusyi←▼M. Meyer

72'▲B. Asik←▼V. Lückner

72'▲F. Luth←▼M. Schmitz

90'▲K. Tack←▼I. Matene

90'▲Y. Zöllner←▼K. Kortum

Holstein Kiel U19 substitutes

KusyiAsikLuthTackZöllnerAssameurAhlers

Manager: L. Pfeiffer

66'▲J. Bugaj←▼J. Ade

72'▲O. Medaiyese←▼A. Buljubašić

83'▲Ismaila Djamanca←▼H. Schümann

83'▲L. Akyildiz←▼C. Nana-Sarhene

Hamburger SV U19 substitutes

BugajMedaiyeseDjamancaAkyildizPoppelbaumMachado

U19 Bundesliga: Holstein Kiel U19 0–0 Hamburger SV U19

Holstein Kiel U19 and Hamburger SV U19 drew 0-0 in U19 Bundesliga on November 30, 2024.

The match was played at Citti Fussball Park - Projensdorf in Kiel.

Holstein Kiel U19 vs Hamburger SV U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Holstein Kiel U19 0–0 Hamburger SV U19