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Hamburger SV U19 vs Holstein Kiel U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Hamburger SV U19
Hamburger SV U19
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
Holstein Kiel U19
Holstein Kiel U19
12/6/2025U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 14Paul-Hauenschild-Plätze 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Hamburger SV U1958%
×Draw19%
Holstein Kiel U1924%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hamburger SV U19
2.61
Holstein Kiel U19
1.65

Hamburger SV U19 creates 58% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 62 away

creates per match

Hamburger SV U19
2.49
Holstein Kiel U19
1.58

allows per match

Hamburger SV U19
1.71
Holstein Kiel U19
2.73

finishing

Hamburger SV U19+0.00on par
Holstein Kiel U19+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamburger SV U19 ↓

Holstein Kiel U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Hamburger SV U19 or draw
76%
Hamburger SV U19 or Holstein Kiel U19
81%
Draw or Holstein Kiel U19
42%

Winning margin

Hamburger SV U19 wins by 2+
37%
Holstein Kiel U19 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Hamburger SV U19 1+ goals
93%
Hamburger SV U19 2+ goals
73%
Hamburger SV U19 3+ goals
47%
Holstein Kiel U19 1+ goals
81%
Holstein Kiel U19 2+ goals
49%
Holstein Kiel U19 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Hamburger SV U19 (draw refunded)
71%
Holstein Kiel U19 (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamburger SV U19 at home — creates 2.49, concedes 1.71 · 76 matches

Holstein Kiel U19 away — creates 1.58, concedes 2.73 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamburger SV U19 attack 2.49 + Holstein Kiel U19 defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.61

Holstein Kiel U19 attack 1.58 + Hamburger SV U19 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Hamburger SV U19 scores more
58%
level
19%
Holstein Kiel U19 scores more
24%

Hamburger SV U19 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Hamburger SV U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Hamburger
Holstein
L. Pfeiffer
Manager: L. Pfeiffer
J. Kaps
Manager: J. Kaps

U19 Bundesliga: Hamburger SV U19 4–2 Holstein Kiel U19

Hamburger SV U19 beat Holstein Kiel U19 4-2 in U19 Bundesliga on December 6, 2025.

The match was played at Paul-Hauenschild-Plätze 10 in Norderstedt.