Holstein Kiel U19 1–0 Chemnitzer FC U19

Holstein Kiel U19

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Chemnitzer FC U19

B. Nohns 90+3'

9/19/2020

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 1Citti Fussball Park - Projensdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Holstein Kiel U1948%

×Draw21%

Chemnitzer FC U1932%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Holstein Kiel U19Expected goals in this matchChemnitzer FC U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.73

Holstein Kiel U19

2.15

Chemnitzer FC U19

1.73

Holstein Kiel U19 creates 24% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 52 away

1.51

creates per match

1.38

2.08

allows per match

2.79

creates per match

Holstein Kiel U19

1.51

Chemnitzer FC U19

1.38

allows per match

Holstein Kiel U19

2.08

Chemnitzer FC U19

2.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Holstein Kiel U19+0.00on par

Chemnitzer FC U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Holstein Kiel U19 ↓

Chemnitzer FC U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Holstein Kiel U19 or draw

68%

Holstein Kiel U19 or Chemnitzer FC U19

79%

Draw or Chemnitzer FC U19

52%

Winning margin

Holstein Kiel U19 wins by 2+

28%

Chemnitzer FC U19 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Holstein Kiel U19 1+ goals

88%

Holstein Kiel U19 2+ goals

63%

Holstein Kiel U19 3+ goals

36%

Chemnitzer FC U19 1+ goals

82%

Chemnitzer FC U19 2+ goals

52%

Chemnitzer FC U19 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Holstein Kiel U19 (draw refunded)

60%

Chemnitzer FC U19 (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Holstein Kiel U19 at home — creates 1.51, concedes 2.08 · 61 matches

Chemnitzer FC U19 away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.79 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Holstein Kiel U19 attack 1.51 + Chemnitzer FC U19 defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.15

Chemnitzer FC U19 attack 1.38 + Holstein Kiel U19 defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Holstein Kiel U19 scores more

48%

level

21%

Chemnitzer FC U19 scores more

32%

Holstein Kiel U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Holstein Kiel U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

52'

F. Ghafury← T. Marten

52'

R. Arndt← Serkan Yildirimer

67'

H. Blohm← T. Richter

75'

B. Nohns← F. Moumouni

80'

G. Tortora← J. Nischalke

85'

P. Witt

85'

P. Witt

88'

M. Pieschel← K. Wadewitz

90+3'

B. Nohns

Holstein

Chemnitzer

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: E. Ostermann

52'▲F. Ghafury←▼T. Marten

52'▲R. Arndt←▼Serkan Yildirimer

67'▲H. Blohm←▼T. Richter

75'▲B. Nohns←▼F. Moumouni

Holstein Kiel U19 substitutes

GhafuryArndtBlohmNohnsQuaasFreudenbergMehden

Manager: J. Stephan

80'▲G. Tortora←▼J. Nischalke

88'▲M. Pieschel←▼K. Wadewitz

Chemnitzer FC U19 substitutes

TortoraPieschelLungwitzKämpferScharfenbergMüllerSeidel