Chemnitzer FC U19 4–2 Holstein Kiel U19

Chemnitzer FC U19

FT

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 2

Holstein Kiel U19

F. Heidler 89'

J. Janz 45+1'

M. Roscher 9'

L. Brodersen 5' (OG)

N. Niehoff 14'

J. Ehlers 2'

10/2/2021

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 6Stadion im Sportforum Chemnitz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Chemnitzer FC U1944%

×Draw21%

Holstein Kiel U1935%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chemnitzer FC U19Expected goals in this matchHolstein Kiel U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

1.86

Chemnitzer FC U19

2.09

Holstein Kiel U19

1.86

Chemnitzer FC U19 creates 12% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 62 away

1.45

creates per match

1.58

2.15

allows per match

2.73

creates per match

Chemnitzer FC U19

1.45

Holstein Kiel U19

1.58

allows per match

Chemnitzer FC U19

2.15

Holstein Kiel U19

2.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chemnitzer FC U19+0.00on par

Holstein Kiel U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chemnitzer FC U19 ↓

Holstein Kiel U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Chemnitzer FC U19 or draw

65%

Chemnitzer FC U19 or Holstein Kiel U19

79%

Draw or Holstein Kiel U19

56%

Winning margin

Chemnitzer FC U19 wins by 2+

25%

Holstein Kiel U19 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Chemnitzer FC U19 1+ goals

88%

Chemnitzer FC U19 2+ goals

62%

Chemnitzer FC U19 3+ goals

34%

Holstein Kiel U19 1+ goals

84%

Holstein Kiel U19 2+ goals

55%

Holstein Kiel U19 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Chemnitzer FC U19 (draw refunded)

56%

Holstein Kiel U19 (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chemnitzer FC U19 at home — creates 1.45, concedes 2.15 · 53 matches

Holstein Kiel U19 away — creates 1.58, concedes 2.73 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chemnitzer FC U19 attack 1.45 + Holstein Kiel U19 defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.09

Holstein Kiel U19 attack 1.58 + Chemnitzer FC U19 defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Chemnitzer FC U19 scores more

44%

level

21%

Holstein Kiel U19 scores more

35%

Chemnitzer FC U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Chemnitzer FC U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

J. Ehlers

5'

L. BrodersenOwn goal

9'

M. Roscher

14'

N. Niehoff

45+1'

J. Janz

46'

F. Moumouni← T. Toure

46'

W. Moje← T. Marquardt

63'

F. Heidler← J. Nischalke

70'

C. Koç← P. Erfmann

78'

P. Kruse← T. Richter

83'

P. Kämpfer← J. Dittrich

89'

F. Heidler

90+3'

J. Wolter← T. Seidel

90'

R. Scharfenberg← M. Roscher

Chemnitzer

Holstein

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

🥅

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Roscher

▼

Nischalke

Manager: J. Stephan

63'▲F. Heidler←▼J. Nischalke

83'▲P. Kämpfer←▼J. Dittrich

90+3'▲J. Wolter←▼T. Seidel

90'▲R. Scharfenberg←▼M. Roscher

Chemnitzer FC U19 substitutes

HeidlerKämpferWolterScharfenbergWindsorSelishtaDorfs

Manager: E. Ostermann

46'▲F. Moumouni←▼T. Toure

46'▲W. Moje←▼T. Marquardt

70'▲C. Koç←▼P. Erfmann

78'▲P. Kruse←▼T. Richter

Holstein Kiel U19 substitutes

MoumouniMojeKoçKruseDoeglOzuzuHundsdorff

U19 Bundesliga: Chemnitzer FC U19 4–2 Holstein Kiel U19

Chemnitzer FC U19 beat Holstein Kiel U19 4-2 in U19 Bundesliga on October 2, 2021.

Goals: J. Ehlers (2'), L. Brodersen (5' o.g.), M. Roscher (9'), N. Niehoff (14'), J. Janz (45+1'), F. Heidler (89').

The match was played at Stadion im Sportforum Chemnitz in Chemnitz.

Chemnitzer FC U19 vs Holstein Kiel U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Chemnitzer FC U19 4–2 Holstein Kiel U19