Chemnitzer FC U19 0–4 Holstein Kiel U19

Chemnitzer FC U19

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 4

Holstein Kiel U19

M. Zoch 40'

L. Schmidt 32', 17'

N. Jungehülsing 18'

11/30/2019

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 13Stadion im Sportforum Chemnitz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Chemnitzer FC U1943%

×Draw21%

Holstein Kiel U1936%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chemnitzer FC U19Expected goals in this matchHolstein Kiel U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.88

Chemnitzer FC U19

2.08

Holstein Kiel U19

1.88

Chemnitzer FC U19 creates 11% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 62 away

1.43

creates per match

1.58

2.17

allows per match

2.73

creates per match

Chemnitzer FC U19

1.43

Holstein Kiel U19

1.58

allows per match

Chemnitzer FC U19

2.17

Holstein Kiel U19

2.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chemnitzer FC U19+0.00on par

Holstein Kiel U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chemnitzer FC U19 ↓

Holstein Kiel U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Chemnitzer FC U19 or draw

64%

Chemnitzer FC U19 or Holstein Kiel U19

79%

Draw or Holstein Kiel U19

57%

Winning margin

Chemnitzer FC U19 wins by 2+

24%

Holstein Kiel U19 wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Chemnitzer FC U19 1+ goals

87%

Chemnitzer FC U19 2+ goals

61%

Chemnitzer FC U19 3+ goals

34%

Holstein Kiel U19 1+ goals

85%

Holstein Kiel U19 2+ goals

56%

Holstein Kiel U19 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Chemnitzer FC U19 (draw refunded)

55%

Holstein Kiel U19 (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chemnitzer FC U19 at home — creates 1.43, concedes 2.17 · 54 matches

Holstein Kiel U19 away — creates 1.58, concedes 2.73 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chemnitzer FC U19 attack 1.43 + Holstein Kiel U19 defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.08

Holstein Kiel U19 attack 1.58 + Chemnitzer FC U19 defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Chemnitzer FC U19 scores more

43%

level

21%

Holstein Kiel U19 scores more

36%

Chemnitzer FC U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Chemnitzer FC U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

18'

32'

40'

57'

A. Jusufi← M. Männilaan

64'

M. Safronow← L. Schmidt

72'

B. Wolff← N. Jungehülsing

77'

N. Lipkow← M. Zoch

Chemnitzer

Holstein

⚽2

▼

Schmidt

▼

Männilaan

⚽

▼

Zoch

⚽

▼

Manager: K. Jendrossek

Chemnitzer FC U19 substitutes

HummitzschSchubertWeidauerMaederEhrhardt

Manager: D. Glawogger

57'▲A. Jusufi←▼M. Männilaan

64'▲M. Safronow←▼L. Schmidt

72'▲B. Wolff←▼N. Jungehülsing

77'▲N. Lipkow←▼M. Zoch

Holstein Kiel U19 substitutes

JusufiSafronowWolffLipkowWolffPaulsenOzuzu