Holstein Kiel U19 3–2 BAK 07 U19: Result & Stats

Holstein Kiel U19

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

BAK 07 U19

I. Matene 64'

K. Tack 14'

M. Schmitz 9' (pen)

A. Keles 53'

M. Mawd 35'

9/21/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 7Citti Fussball Park - Projensdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Holstein Kiel U1948%

×Draw21%

BAK 07 U1931%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Holstein Kiel U19Expected goals in this matchBAK 07 U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.71

Holstein Kiel U19

2.15

BAK 07 U19

1.71

Holstein Kiel U19 creates 26% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 33 away

1.51

creates per match

1.33

2.08

allows per match

2.79

creates per match

Holstein Kiel U19

1.51

BAK 07 U19

1.33

allows per match

Holstein Kiel U19

2.08

BAK 07 U19

2.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Holstein Kiel U19+0.00on par

BAK 07 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Holstein Kiel U19 ↓

BAK 07 U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Holstein Kiel U19 or draw

69%

Holstein Kiel U19 or BAK 07 U19

79%

Draw or BAK 07 U19

52%

Winning margin

Holstein Kiel U19 wins by 2+

28%

BAK 07 U19 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Holstein Kiel U19 1+ goals

88%

Holstein Kiel U19 2+ goals

63%

Holstein Kiel U19 3+ goals

36%

BAK 07 U19 1+ goals

82%

BAK 07 U19 2+ goals

51%

BAK 07 U19 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Holstein Kiel U19 (draw refunded)

61%

BAK 07 U19 (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Holstein Kiel U19 at home — creates 1.51, concedes 2.08 · 61 matches

BAK 07 U19 away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.79 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Holstein Kiel U19 attack 1.51 + BAK 07 U19 defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.15

BAK 07 U19 attack 1.33 + Holstein Kiel U19 defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Holstein Kiel U19 scores more

48%

level

21%

BAK 07 U19 scores more

31%

Holstein Kiel U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Holstein Kiel U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

M. SchmitzPenalty

14'

K. Tack

25'

L. Suder← A. Kusyi

25'

A. Farhadi← Amir Mohammadi

35'

M. Mawd

46'

A. Bedford← Fernando Balde

53'

A. Keles

59'

A. Abdulla← M. Schmitz

59'

K. Kortum← M. Meyer

64'

I. Matene

72'

B. Asik← K. Tack

75'

J. Dietrich← Y. Sambale

86'

B. Derin← M. Mawd

Holstein

BAK

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Schmitz

Medlin

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: J. Kaps

25'▲L. Suder←▼A. Kusyi

59'▲A. Abdulla←▼M. Schmitz

59'▲K. Kortum←▼M. Meyer

72'▲B. Asik←▼K. Tack

Holstein Kiel U19 substitutes

SuderAbdullaKortumAsikUgunaSuhrJunge

Manager: J. Eckert

25'▲A. Farhadi←▼Amir Mohammadi

46'▲A. Bedford←▼Fernando Balde

75'▲J. Dietrich←▼Y. Sambale

86'▲B. Derin←▼M. Mawd

BAK 07 U19 substitutes

FarhadiBedfordDietrichDerinYosmaGülvardarRemer

U19 Bundesliga: Holstein Kiel U19 3–2 BAK 07 U19

Holstein Kiel U19 beat BAK 07 U19 3-2 in U19 Bundesliga on September 21, 2024.

Goals: M. Schmitz (9' pen), K. Tack (14'), M. Mawd (35'), A. Keles (53'), I. Matene (64').

The match was played at Citti Fussball Park - Projensdorf in Kiel.

Holstein Kiel U19 vs BAK 07 U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Holstein Kiel U19 3–2 BAK 07 U19