BAK 07 U19 0–0 Holstein Kiel U19: Result & Stats

BAK 07 U19

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Holstein Kiel U19

3/11/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 17Hanne-Sobek-Sportanlage NR1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

BAK 07 U1951%

×Draw20%

Holstein Kiel U1930%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BAK 07 U19Expected goals in this matchHolstein Kiel U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

1.80

BAK 07 U19

2.38

Holstein Kiel U19

1.80

BAK 07 U19 creates 32% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 62 away

2.03

creates per match

1.58

2.03

allows per match

2.73

creates per match

BAK 07 U19

2.03

Holstein Kiel U19

1.58

allows per match

BAK 07 U19

2.03

Holstein Kiel U19

2.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BAK 07 U19+0.00on par

Holstein Kiel U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BAK 07 U19 ↓

Holstein Kiel U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

BAK 07 U19 or draw

70%

BAK 07 U19 or Holstein Kiel U19

80%

Draw or Holstein Kiel U19

49%

Winning margin

BAK 07 U19 wins by 2+

31%

Holstein Kiel U19 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

BAK 07 U19 1+ goals

91%

BAK 07 U19 2+ goals

68%

BAK 07 U19 3+ goals

42%

Holstein Kiel U19 1+ goals

83%

Holstein Kiel U19 2+ goals

54%

Holstein Kiel U19 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

BAK 07 U19 (draw refunded)

63%

Holstein Kiel U19 (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BAK 07 U19 at home — creates 2.03, concedes 2.03 · 33 matches

Holstein Kiel U19 away — creates 1.58, concedes 2.73 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BAK 07 U19 attack 2.03 + Holstein Kiel U19 defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.38

Holstein Kiel U19 attack 1.58 + BAK 07 U19 defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

BAK 07 U19 scores more

51%

level

20%

Holstein Kiel U19 scores more

30%

BAK 07 U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "BAK 07 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

M. Belaid← D.Kanyi

46'

E. Izci← A. Aksoy

66'

M. Kalini← T. Iraki

66'

J. de Chatrie Doegl← L. Thele

66'

M. Sinanović← L. Glissmann

74'

A. Akdağ← E. Ipek

74'

O. Iraqi← B. Sevim

BAK

Holstein

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Arsovic

26'▲M. Belaid←▼D.Kanyi

46'▲E. Izci←▼A. Aksoy

66'▲M. Kalini←▼T. Iraki

74'▲A. Akdağ←▼E. Ipek

74'▲O. Iraqi←▼B. Sevim

BAK 07 U19 substitutes

BelaidIzciKaliniAkdağIraqiDağdemir

Manager: F. Raue

66'▲J. de Chatrie Doegl←▼L. Thele

66'▲M. Sinanović←▼L. Glissmann

Holstein Kiel U19 substitutes

DoeglSinanovićHrnjicicMeßfeldtFobissiè

Match Recap: BAK 07 U19 vs Holstein Kiel U19

BAK 07 U19 and Holstein Kiel U19 drew 0-0 in U19 Bundesliga on March 11, 2023.

The match was played at Hanne-Sobek-Sportanlage NR1 in Berlin.

BAK 07 U19 vs Holstein Kiel U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: BAK 07 U19 vs Holstein Kiel U19