BAK 07 U19 2–4 Holstein Kiel U19: Result & Stats

BAK 07 U19

FT

2 – 4

HT: 2 – 3

Holstein Kiel U19

I. Danfa 43', 31'

V. Lückner 49'

M. Schmitz 36' (pen)

M. Meyer 9', 5'

12/7/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 14Poststadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

BAK 07 U1950%

×Draw20%

Holstein Kiel U1930%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BAK 07 U19Expected goals in this matchHolstein Kiel U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.37

1.82

BAK 07 U19

2.37

Holstein Kiel U19

1.82

BAK 07 U19 creates 30% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 61 away

2.03

creates per match

1.61

2.03

allows per match

2.70

creates per match

BAK 07 U19

2.03

Holstein Kiel U19

1.61

allows per match

BAK 07 U19

2.03

Holstein Kiel U19

2.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BAK 07 U19+0.00on par

Holstein Kiel U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BAK 07 U19 ↓

Holstein Kiel U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

BAK 07 U19 or draw

70%

BAK 07 U19 or Holstein Kiel U19

80%

Draw or Holstein Kiel U19

50%

Winning margin

BAK 07 U19 wins by 2+

30%

Holstein Kiel U19 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

BAK 07 U19 1+ goals

91%

BAK 07 U19 2+ goals

68%

BAK 07 U19 3+ goals

42%

Holstein Kiel U19 1+ goals

84%

Holstein Kiel U19 2+ goals

54%

Holstein Kiel U19 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

BAK 07 U19 (draw refunded)

62%

Holstein Kiel U19 (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BAK 07 U19 at home — creates 2.03, concedes 2.03 · 33 matches

Holstein Kiel U19 away — creates 1.61, concedes 2.70 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BAK 07 U19 attack 2.03 + Holstein Kiel U19 defence 2.70 → ÷2 → 2.37

Holstein Kiel U19 attack 1.61 + BAK 07 U19 defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

BAK 07 U19 scores more

50%

level

20%

Holstein Kiel U19 scores more

30%

BAK 07 U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "BAK 07 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

M. Meyer

9'

M. Meyer

31'

I. Danfa

36'

M. SchmitzPenalty

43'

I. Danfa

46'

W. Hildebrandt← Y. Sambale

46'

A. Assameur← H. Westphal

46'

F. Luth← A. Kusyi

49'

V. Lückner

54'

A. Keles← F. Yosma

65'

Y. Zöllner← T. Spieckermann

73'

J. Dietrich← E. Üstün

74'

B. Asik← M. Schmitz

84'

K. Tack← I. Matene

84'

R. Uguna← K. Kortum

86'

Bilal Youssef← M. Mawd

86'

J. Piecha← F. Hartmann

BAK

Holstein

Müller-Ka

▼

Spieckerm

⚽

Lückner

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: J. Eckert

46'▲W. Hildebrandt←▼Y. Sambale

54'▲A. Keles←▼F. Yosma

73'▲J. Dietrich←▼E. Üstün

86'▲Bilal Youssef←▼M. Mawd

86'▲J. Piecha←▼F. Hartmann

BAK 07 U19 substitutes

HildebrandtKelesDietrichYoussefPiechaBalliuDemırhan

Manager: J. Kaps

46'▲A. Assameur←▼H. Westphal

46'▲F. Luth←▼A. Kusyi

65'▲Y. Zöllner←▼T. Spieckermann

74'▲B. Asik←▼M. Schmitz

84'▲K. Tack←▼I. Matene

84'▲R. Uguna←▼K. Kortum

Holstein Kiel U19 substitutes

AssameurLuthZöllnerAsikTackUgunaKaiser