hodd 1–0 Asker: Result & Stats

hodd

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Asker

A. Scriven 36'

9/10/2022

2. Division - Group 2 · Group 2 - 20Nye Høddvoll Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

hodd63%

×Draw21%

Asker16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

hoddExpected goals in this matchAsker

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

0.88

hodd

1.98

Asker

0.88

hodd creates 125% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 45 away

2.15

creates per match

1.29

0.46

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

hodd

2.15

Asker

1.29

allows per match

hodd

0.46

Asker

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

hodd+0.00on par

Asker+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

hodd ↓

Asker →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

hodd or draw

84%

hodd or Asker

79%

Draw or Asker

37%

Winning margin

hodd wins by 2+

38%

Asker wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

hodd 1+ goals

86%

hodd 2+ goals

59%

hodd 3+ goals

31%

Asker 1+ goals

59%

Asker 2+ goals

22%

Asker 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

hodd (draw refunded)

80%

Asker (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

hodd at home — creates 2.15, concedes 0.46 · 13 matches

Asker away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.82 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

hodd attack 2.15 + Asker defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.98

Asker attack 1.29 + hodd defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

hodd scores more

63%

level

21%

Asker scores more

16%

hodd at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "hodd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

L. Sesay← M. Can

36'

A. Scriven

46'

B. Kadri← A. Heredia-Randen

69'

A. Helmersen← A. Scriven

72'

73'

84'

85'

86'

90'

hodd

Asker

30

6

5

2

25

▼

Arzani

16

Fazi

15

▼

Heredia-R

21

▼

Can

11

Skaug

7

Mauritz-H

23

▼

1

4

24

17

32

3

6

14

20

▼

Skeide

7

Hjelmeset

9

⚽

▼

Scriven

Manager: J. Dragsten

69'▲A. Helmersen←▼A. Scriven

85'▲K. Ødven←▼S. Skeide

hodd substitutes

30Helmersen18Ødven5Helgesen29Håheim-Elveseter19Nilsen22Brandal23Gjerde92Korneičiks27Televik

Manager: V. Skogheim

32'▲L. Sesay←▼M. Can

46'▲B. Kadri←▼A. Heredia-Randen

73'▲T. Aarstad←▼R. Nguen

84'▲H. Bordal←▼D. Arzani

Asker substitutes

19Sesay8Kadri9Aarstad3Bordal1Paljamar

2. Division - Group 2: hodd 1–0 Asker

hodd beat Asker 1-0 in 2. Division - Group 2 on September 10, 2022.

Goals: A. Scriven (36').

The match was played at Nye Høddvoll Stadion in Ulsteinvik.

hodd vs Asker — 2. Division - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

2. Division - Group 2: hodd 1–0 Asker