hodd 1–1 Asker: Result & Stats

hodd

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Asker

J. Benjaminsen 41'

R. Isegran 65'

9/25/2021

2. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 19Nye Høddvoll Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

hodd43%

×Draw24%

Asker33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

hoddExpected goals in this matchAsker

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.45

hodd

1.69

Asker

1.45

hodd creates 17% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 13 away

2.14

creates per match

2.08

0.81

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

hodd

2.14

Asker

2.08

allows per match

hodd

0.81

Asker

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

hodd+0.00on par

Asker+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

hodd ↓

Asker →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

hodd or draw

67%

hodd or Asker

76%

Draw or Asker

57%

Winning margin

hodd wins by 2+

23%

Asker wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

hodd 1+ goals

82%

hodd 2+ goals

50%

hodd 3+ goals

24%

Asker 1+ goals

77%

Asker 2+ goals

42%

Asker 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

hodd (draw refunded)

57%

Asker (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

hodd at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.81 · 43 matches

Asker away — creates 2.08, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

hodd attack 2.14 + Asker defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.69

Asker attack 2.08 + hodd defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

hodd scores more

43%

level

24%

Asker scores more

33%

hodd at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "hodd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

V. Hagen← P. Nersveen

40'

K. Madsen

41'

J. Benjaminsen

46'

P. Mouasso← S. Skeide

54'

T. Hestad← R. Hjelmeseth

60'

M. Gulliksen← H. Hauso

65'

71'

76'

81'

84'

87'

F. Kastrati← F. Kastrati

hodd

Asker

24

Pedersen

6

Madsen

5

Jones

2

⚽

Isegran

3

Vogt

23

▼

Hauso

19

Okeke

10

▼

25

11

7

77

4

▼

Nersveen

2

⚽

3

6

10

14

20

▼

Skeide

7

▼

Hjelmeset

11

Løken

23

▼

Scriven

Manager: K. Knappen

38'▲V. Hagen←▼P. Nersveen

46'▲P. Mouasso←▼S. Skeide

54'▲T. Hestad←▼R. Hjelmeseth

76'▲H. Leine←▼A. Scriven

hodd substitutes

5Hagen17Mouasso15Hestad9Leine1Alme21Brandal16Fjørtoft19Elveseter

Manager: V. Skogheim

60'▲M. Gulliksen←▼H. Hauso

87'▲F. Kastrati←▼F. Kastrati

Asker substitutes

17Gulliksen14Kastrati18Celina26Fredhall1Thomas

Match Recap: hodd vs Asker

hodd and Asker drew 1-1 in 2. Division - Group 1 on September 25, 2021.

Goals: J. Benjaminsen (41'), R. Isegran (65').

The match was played at Nye Høddvoll Stadion in Ulsteinvik.

hodd vs Asker — 2. Division - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: hodd vs Asker