Asker 1–1 hodd: Result & Stats

Asker

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

hodd

M. Can 90+1'

I. Skotheim 68'

6/26/2022

2. Division - Group 2 · Group 2 - 12Føyka Kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Asker24%

×Draw22%

hodd54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AskerExpected goals in this matchhodd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.90

Asker

1.20

hodd

1.90

hodd creates 58% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 13 away

1.71

creates per match

2.00

1.79

allows per match

0.69

creates per match

Asker

1.71

hodd

2.00

allows per match

Asker

1.79

hodd

0.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Asker+0.00on par

hodd+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Asker ↓

hodd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Asker or draw

46%

Asker or hodd

78%

Draw or hodd

76%

Winning margin

Asker wins by 2+

10%

hodd wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Asker 1+ goals

70%

Asker 2+ goals

34%

Asker 3+ goals

12%

hodd 1+ goals

85%

hodd 2+ goals

56%

hodd 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Asker (draw refunded)

31%

hodd (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Asker at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.79 · 42 matches

hodd away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Asker attack 1.71 + hodd defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.20

hodd attack 2.00 + Asker defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Asker scores more

24%

level

22%

hodd scores more

54%

hodd at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "hodd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

S. Emanuelsen← D. Arzani

45'

A. Heredia-Randen

53'

M. Haugen

60'

I. Skotheim← K. Ødven

68'

I. Skotheim

69'

V. Skogheim

74'

F. Kastrati← B. Kadri

77'

E. Helgesen← A. Scriven

79'

H. Hauso

82'

M. Can← S. Emanuelsen

84'

R. Hjelmeseth

84'

M. Can

85'

A. Nurmela← I. Skotheim

90+1'

M. Can

Asker

hodd

1

4

17

3

6

19

14

18

▼

Ødven

20

Skeide

7

Hjelmeset

9

▼

3

30

5

2

25

▼

Arzani

16

Fazi

23

Hauso

8

▼

15

11

7

Manager: V. Skogheim

26'▲S. Emanuelsen←▼D. Arzani

74'▲F. Kastrati←▼B. Kadri

82'▲M. Can←▼S. Emanuelsen

Asker substitutes

22Emanuelsen10Kastrati21Can9Aarstad1Paljamar26Fredhall38Groth44Sesay

Manager: J. Dragsten

60'▲I. Skotheim←▼K. Ødven

77'▲E. Helgesen←▼A. Scriven

85'▲A. Nurmela←▼I. Skotheim

hodd substitutes

10Skotheim5Helgesen24Nurmela16Engen23Gjerde92Korneičiks27Televik

Match Recap: Asker vs hodd

Asker and hodd drew 1-1 in 2. Division - Group 2 on June 26, 2022.

Goals: I. Skotheim (68'), M. Can (90+1').

The match was played at Føyka Kunstgress in Asker.

Asker vs hodd — 2. Division - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Asker vs hodd