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Hessen Dreieich vs Bad Vilbel — Oberliga - Hessen 2020

Hessen Dreieich
Hessen Dreieich
FT
4 – 1
Bad Vilbel
Bad Vilbel
8/27/2021Oberliga - HessenOberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 3Hahn Air Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Hessen Dreieich60%
×Draw20%
Bad Vilbel20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hessen Dreieich
2.25
Bad Vilbel
1.23

Hessen Dreieich creates 83% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 22 away

creates per match

Hessen Dreieich
2.81
Bad Vilbel
1.14

allows per match

Hessen Dreieich
1.33
Bad Vilbel
1.68

finishing

Hessen Dreieich+0.00on par
Bad Vilbel+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hessen Dreieich ↓

Bad Vilbel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Hessen Dreieich or draw
80%
Hessen Dreieich or Bad Vilbel
80%
Draw or Bad Vilbel
40%

Winning margin

Hessen Dreieich wins by 2+
38%
Bad Vilbel wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Hessen Dreieich 1+ goals
89%
Hessen Dreieich 2+ goals
65%
Hessen Dreieich 3+ goals
39%
Bad Vilbel 1+ goals
71%
Bad Vilbel 2+ goals
35%
Bad Vilbel 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hessen Dreieich (draw refunded)
75%
Bad Vilbel (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hessen Dreieich at home — creates 2.81, concedes 1.33 · 21 matches

Bad Vilbel away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.68 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hessen Dreieich attack 2.81 + Bad Vilbel defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 2.25

Bad Vilbel attack 1.14 + Hessen Dreieich defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Hessen Dreieich scores more
60%
level
20%
Bad Vilbel scores more
20%

Hessen Dreieich at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Hessen Dreieich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hessen Dreieich vs Bad Vilbel

Hessen Dreieich beat Bad Vilbel 4-1 in Oberliga - Hessen on August 27, 2021.

The match was played at Hahn Air Sportpark in Dreieich.