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Bad Vilbel vs Hessen Dreieich — Oberliga - Hessen 2020

Bad Vilbel
Bad Vilbel
FT
1 – 3
Hessen Dreieich
Hessen Dreieich
9/29/2021Oberliga - HessenOberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 10Nidda-Sportfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Bad Vilbel25%
×Draw24%
Hessen Dreieich51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bad Vilbel
1.13
Hessen Dreieich
1.71

Hessen Dreieich creates 51% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 21 away

creates per match

Bad Vilbel
0.73
Hessen Dreieich
2.14

allows per match

Bad Vilbel
1.27
Hessen Dreieich
1.52

finishing

Bad Vilbel+0.00on par
Hessen Dreieich+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bad Vilbel ↓

Hessen Dreieich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Bad Vilbel or draw
49%
Bad Vilbel or Hessen Dreieich
76%
Draw or Hessen Dreieich
75%

Winning margin

Bad Vilbel wins by 2+
10%
Hessen Dreieich wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Bad Vilbel 1+ goals
68%
Bad Vilbel 2+ goals
31%
Bad Vilbel 3+ goals
11%
Hessen Dreieich 1+ goals
82%
Hessen Dreieich 2+ goals
51%
Hessen Dreieich 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Bad Vilbel (draw refunded)
33%
Hessen Dreieich (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bad Vilbel at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.27 · 22 matches

Hessen Dreieich away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.52 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bad Vilbel attack 0.73 + Hessen Dreieich defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.13

Hessen Dreieich attack 2.14 + Bad Vilbel defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Bad Vilbel scores more
25%
level
24%
Hessen Dreieich scores more
51%

Hessen Dreieich at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Hessen Dreieich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bad Vilbel vs Hessen Dreieich

Hessen Dreieich beat Bad Vilbel 3-1 in Oberliga - Hessen on September 29, 2021.

The match was played at Nidda-Sportfeld in Bad Vilbel.