Bad Vilbel vs Hessen Dreieich — Oberliga - Hessen 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 21+ matches
Bad Vilbel25%
Hessen Dreieich51%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Hessen Dreieich creates 51% more chances
Season form · 22 home / 21 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over54
- Under46
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes55
- No45
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Bad Vilbel ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Bad Vilbel at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.27 · 22 matches
Hessen Dreieich away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.52 · 21 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Bad Vilbel attack 0.73 + Hessen Dreieich defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.13
Hessen Dreieich attack 2.14 + Bad Vilbel defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.71
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 51%?"
Hessen Dreieich at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 51% does not mean "Hessen Dreieich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.Hessen Dreieich
Rot-Weiß Walldorf
Hanau 93
Friedberg
Hadamar
Waldgirmes
Buchonia Flieden
SV Zeilsheim
Fernwald
SV Steinbach
BaunatalBad Vilbel
Dietkirchen
Neuhof
Ginsheim
Viktoria Griesheim
Hünfelder SV
Eddersheim
FC 1906 ErlenseeIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Bad Vilbel host Hessen Dreieich on Sunday, 23 May 2021 at 13:00. The match is part of the Oberliga - Hessen 2020/2021 season.
Bad Vilbel vs Hessen Dreieich — Match Preview
Bad Vilbel face Hessen Dreieich on May 23, 2021 in this Oberliga - Hessen fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.
Bad Vilbel host Hessen Dreieich at Nidda-Sportfeld.
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