Halmstad 1–2 Gefle IF: Result & Stats | Superettan

Halmstad

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Gefle IF

8/11/2018

Superettan · Round 18Örjans Vall (Halmstad)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Halmstad58%

×Draw23%

Gefle IF19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HalmstadExpected goals in this matchGefle IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

0.92

Halmstad

1.79

Gefle IF

0.92

Halmstad creates 95% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 45 away

1.80

creates per match

0.87

0.97

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Halmstad

1.80

Gefle IF

0.87

allows per match

Halmstad

0.97

Gefle IF

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Halmstad+0.00on par

Gefle IF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Halmstad ↓

Gefle IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Halmstad or draw

81%

Halmstad or Gefle IF

77%

Draw or Gefle IF

42%

Winning margin

Halmstad wins by 2+

33%

Gefle IF wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Halmstad 1+ goals

83%

Halmstad 2+ goals

53%

Halmstad 3+ goals

26%

Gefle IF 1+ goals

60%

Gefle IF 2+ goals

23%

Gefle IF 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Halmstad (draw refunded)

75%

Gefle IF (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Halmstad at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.97 · 60 matches

Gefle IF away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.78 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Halmstad attack 1.80 + Gefle IF defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.79

Gefle IF attack 0.87 + Halmstad defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Halmstad scores more

58%

level

23%

Gefle IF scores more

19%

Halmstad at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Halmstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff