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Gefle IF vs Halmstad — Superettan 2018

Gefle IF
Gefle IF
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Halmstad
Halmstad
5/7/2018SuperettanSuperettan · Round 6Gavlevallen (Gävle)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Gefle IF27%
×Draw24%
Halmstad49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gefle IF
1.25
Halmstad
1.75

Halmstad creates 40% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 60 away

creates per match

Gefle IF
1.43
Halmstad
1.73

allows per match

Gefle IF
1.76
Halmstad
1.07

finishing

Gefle IF+0.00on par
Halmstad+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gefle IF ↓

Halmstad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Gefle IF or draw
51%
Gefle IF or Halmstad
76%
Draw or Halmstad
73%

Winning margin

Gefle IF wins by 2+
11%
Halmstad wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Gefle IF 1+ goals
71%
Gefle IF 2+ goals
36%
Gefle IF 3+ goals
13%
Halmstad 1+ goals
83%
Halmstad 2+ goals
52%
Halmstad 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Gefle IF (draw refunded)
36%
Halmstad (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gefle IF at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.76 · 46 matches

Halmstad away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.07 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gefle IF attack 1.43 + Halmstad defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.25

Halmstad attack 1.73 + Gefle IF defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Gefle IF scores more
27%
level
24%
Halmstad scores more
49%

Halmstad at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Halmstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superettan: Gefle IF 1–3 Halmstad

Halmstad beat Gefle IF 3-1 in Superettan on May 7, 2018.

The match was played at Gavlevallen (Gävle).