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Halmstad vs Gefle IF — Svenska Cupen 2019

Halmstad
Halmstad
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Gefle IF
Gefle IF
2/16/2025Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 1Söndrums IP konstgräs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Halmstad55%
×Draw25%
Gefle IF20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Halmstad
1.58
Gefle IF
0.83

Halmstad creates 90% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 7 away

creates per match

Halmstad
1.45
Gefle IF
0.57

allows per match

Halmstad
1.09
Gefle IF
1.71

finishing

Halmstad+0.00on par
Gefle IF+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Halmstad ↓

Gefle IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Halmstad or draw
80%
Halmstad or Gefle IF
75%
Draw or Gefle IF
45%

Winning margin

Halmstad wins by 2+
29%
Gefle IF wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Halmstad 1+ goals
79%
Halmstad 2+ goals
47%
Halmstad 3+ goals
21%
Gefle IF 1+ goals
56%
Gefle IF 2+ goals
20%
Gefle IF 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Halmstad (draw refunded)
74%
Gefle IF (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Halmstad at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Gefle IF away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Halmstad attack 1.45 + Gefle IF defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.58

Gefle IF attack 0.57 + Halmstad defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Halmstad scores more
55%
level
25%
Gefle IF scores more
20%

Halmstad at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Halmstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: Halmstad 4–0 Gefle IF

Halmstad beat Gefle IF 4-0 in Svenska Cupen on February 16, 2025.

The match was played at Söndrums IP konstgräs in Halmstad.