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Hertha BSC vs Hamburger SV — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Hertha BSC
Hertha BSC
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV
1/25/20252. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 19Olympiastadion Berlin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Hertha BSC37%
×Draw24%
Hamburger SV38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hertha BSC
1.47
Hamburger SV
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 119 away

creates per match

Hertha BSC
1.55
Hamburger SV
1.74

allows per match

Hertha BSC
1.25
Hamburger SV
1.39

finishing

Hertha BSC+0.00on par
Hamburger SV+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha BSC ↓

Hamburger SV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Hertha BSC or draw
62%
Hertha BSC or Hamburger SV
76%
Draw or Hamburger SV
63%

Winning margin

Hertha BSC wins by 2+
18%
Hamburger SV wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Hertha BSC 1+ goals
77%
Hertha BSC 2+ goals
43%
Hertha BSC 3+ goals
18%
Hamburger SV 1+ goals
78%
Hamburger SV 2+ goals
44%
Hamburger SV 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Hertha BSC (draw refunded)
49%
Hamburger SV (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha BSC at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.25 · 51 matches

Hamburger SV away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.39 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha BSC attack 1.55 + Hamburger SV defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.47

Hamburger SV attack 1.74 + Hertha BSC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Hertha BSC scores more
37%
level
24%
Hamburger SV scores more
38%

Hamburger SV at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Hamburger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hertha BSC vs Hamburger SV

Hamburger SV beat Hertha BSC 3-2 in 2. Bundesliga on January 25, 2025.

The match was played at Olympiastadion Berlin in Berlin.