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Hamburger SV vs Hertha BSC — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Hertha BSC
Hertha BSC
8/10/20242. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 2Volksparkstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Hamburger SV50%
×Draw22%
Hertha BSC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hamburger SV
1.93
Hertha BSC
1.41

Hamburger SV creates 37% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 51 away

creates per match

Hamburger SV
2.10
Hertha BSC
1.69

allows per match

Hamburger SV
1.13
Hertha BSC
1.76

finishing

Hamburger SV+0.00on par
Hertha BSC+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamburger SV ↓

Hertha BSC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Hamburger SV or draw
72%
Hamburger SV or Hertha BSC
78%
Draw or Hertha BSC
50%

Winning margin

Hamburger SV wins by 2+
28%
Hertha BSC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hamburger SV 1+ goals
85%
Hamburger SV 2+ goals
57%
Hamburger SV 3+ goals
30%
Hertha BSC 1+ goals
76%
Hertha BSC 2+ goals
41%
Hertha BSC 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Hamburger SV (draw refunded)
64%
Hertha BSC (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamburger SV at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.13 · 119 matches

Hertha BSC away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.76 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamburger SV attack 2.10 + Hertha BSC defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.93

Hertha BSC attack 1.69 + Hamburger SV defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Hamburger SV scores more
50%
level
22%
Hertha BSC scores more
28%

Hamburger SV at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Hamburger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hamburger SV 1 – 1 Hertha BSC

Hamburger SV and Hertha BSC drew 1-1 in 2. Bundesliga on August 10, 2024.

The match was played at Volksparkstadion in Hamburg.