Hamburger SV 3–0 Hertha Berlin: Result & Stats

Hamburger SV

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Hertha Berlin

8/19/2023

2. Bundesliga · Round 3Volksparkstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Hamburger SV50%

×Draw22%

Hertha Berlin28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hamburger SVExpected goals in this matchHertha Berlin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.40

Hamburger SV

1.94

Hertha Berlin

1.40

Hamburger SV creates 39% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 51 away

2.12

creates per match

1.69

1.11

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Hamburger SV

2.12

Hertha Berlin

1.69

allows per match

Hamburger SV

1.11

Hertha Berlin

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hamburger SV+0.00on par

Hertha Berlin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamburger SV ↓

Hertha Berlin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Hamburger SV or draw

72%

Hamburger SV or Hertha Berlin

78%

Draw or Hertha Berlin

50%

Winning margin

Hamburger SV wins by 2+

28%

Hertha Berlin wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Hamburger SV 1+ goals

86%

Hamburger SV 2+ goals

58%

Hamburger SV 3+ goals

30%

Hertha Berlin 1+ goals

75%

Hertha Berlin 2+ goals

41%

Hertha Berlin 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Hamburger SV (draw refunded)

64%

Hertha Berlin (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamburger SV at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.11 · 118 matches

Hertha Berlin away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.76 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamburger SV attack 2.12 + Hertha Berlin defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.94

Hertha Berlin attack 1.69 + Hamburger SV defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Hamburger SV scores more

50%

level

22%

Hertha Berlin scores more

28%

Hamburger SV at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Hamburger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff