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Hertha BSC vs FC Schalke 04 — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Hertha BSC
Hertha BSC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC Schalke 04
FC Schalke 04
1/17/20262. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 18Olympiastadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Hertha BSC42%
×Draw25%
FC Schalke 0433%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hertha BSC
1.51
FC Schalke 04
1.33

Hertha BSC creates 14% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 68 away

creates per match

Hertha BSC
1.55
FC Schalke 04
1.41

allows per match

Hertha BSC
1.25
FC Schalke 04
1.47

finishing

Hertha BSC+0.00on par
FC Schalke 04+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha BSC ↓

FC Schalke 04 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Hertha BSC or draw
67%
Hertha BSC or FC Schalke 04
75%
Draw or FC Schalke 04
58%

Winning margin

Hertha BSC wins by 2+
20%
FC Schalke 04 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Hertha BSC 1+ goals
78%
Hertha BSC 2+ goals
44%
Hertha BSC 3+ goals
19%
FC Schalke 04 1+ goals
74%
FC Schalke 04 2+ goals
38%
FC Schalke 04 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Hertha BSC (draw refunded)
55%
FC Schalke 04 (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha BSC at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.25 · 51 matches

FC Schalke 04 away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.47 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha BSC attack 1.55 + FC Schalke 04 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.51

FC Schalke 04 attack 1.41 + Hertha BSC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hertha BSC scores more
42%
level
25%
FC Schalke 04 scores more
33%

Hertha BSC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hertha BSC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hertha BSC vs FC Schalke 04

Hertha BSC and FC Schalke 04 drew 0-0 in 2. Bundesliga on January 17, 2026.

The match was played at Olympiastadion in Berlin.