Hertha Berlin 5–2 FC Schalke 04: Result & Stats

Hertha Berlin

FT

5 – 2

HT: 3 – 2

FC Schalke 04

3/17/2024

2. Bundesliga · Round 26Olympiastadion Berlin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Hertha Berlin42%

×Draw25%

FC Schalke 0433%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hertha BerlinExpected goals in this matchFC Schalke 04

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.33

Hertha Berlin

1.51

FC Schalke 04

1.33

Hertha Berlin creates 14% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 68 away

1.55

creates per match

1.41

1.25

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Hertha Berlin

1.55

FC Schalke 04

1.41

allows per match

Hertha Berlin

1.25

FC Schalke 04

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hertha Berlin+0.00on par

FC Schalke 04+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha Berlin ↓

FC Schalke 04 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Hertha Berlin or draw

67%

Hertha Berlin or FC Schalke 04

75%

Draw or FC Schalke 04

58%

Winning margin

Hertha Berlin wins by 2+

20%

FC Schalke 04 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Hertha Berlin 1+ goals

78%

Hertha Berlin 2+ goals

44%

Hertha Berlin 3+ goals

19%

FC Schalke 04 1+ goals

74%

FC Schalke 04 2+ goals

38%

FC Schalke 04 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Hertha Berlin (draw refunded)

55%

FC Schalke 04 (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha Berlin at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.25 · 51 matches

FC Schalke 04 away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.47 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha Berlin attack 1.55 + FC Schalke 04 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.51

FC Schalke 04 attack 1.41 + Hertha Berlin defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hertha Berlin scores more

42%

level

25%

FC Schalke 04 scores more

33%

Hertha Berlin at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hertha Berlin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff