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FC Schalke 04 vs Hertha BSC — 2. Bundesliga 2018

FC Schalke 04
FC Schalke 04
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Hertha BSC
Hertha BSC
8/1/20252. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 1Veltins Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

FC Schalke 0444%
×Draw23%
Hertha BSC33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Schalke 04
1.84
Hertha BSC
1.56

FC Schalke 04 creates 18% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 51 away

creates per match

FC Schalke 04
1.93
Hertha BSC
1.69

allows per match

FC Schalke 04
1.43
Hertha BSC
1.76

finishing

FC Schalke 04+0.00on par
Hertha BSC+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Schalke 04 ↓

Hertha BSC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

FC Schalke 04 or draw
67%
FC Schalke 04 or Hertha BSC
77%
Draw or Hertha BSC
56%

Winning margin

FC Schalke 04 wins by 2+
24%
Hertha BSC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

FC Schalke 04 1+ goals
84%
FC Schalke 04 2+ goals
55%
FC Schalke 04 3+ goals
28%
Hertha BSC 1+ goals
79%
Hertha BSC 2+ goals
46%
Hertha BSC 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

FC Schalke 04 (draw refunded)
57%
Hertha BSC (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Schalke 04 at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.43 · 68 matches

Hertha BSC away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.76 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Schalke 04 attack 1.93 + Hertha BSC defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.84

Hertha BSC attack 1.69 + FC Schalke 04 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FC Schalke 04 scores more
44%
level
23%
Hertha BSC scores more
33%

FC Schalke 04 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FC Schalke 04 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Schalke 04 vs Hertha BSC

FC Schalke 04 beat Hertha BSC 2-1 in 2. Bundesliga on August 1, 2025.

The match was played at Veltins Arena in Gelsenkirchen.