Hertha BSC 2–1 1. FC Nürnberg: Result & Stats

Hertha BSC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

1. FC Nürnberg

J. Brekalo 88', 20'

T. Baack 45'

3/1/2026

2. Bundesliga · Round 24Olympiastadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Hertha BSC42%

×Draw25%

1. FC Nürnberg34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hertha BSCExpected goals in this match1. FC Nürnberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.35

Hertha BSC

1.53

1. FC Nürnberg

1.35

Hertha BSC creates 13% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

1.42

creates per match

1.23

1.47

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Hertha BSC

1.42

1. FC Nürnberg

1.23

allows per match

Hertha BSC

1.47

1. FC Nürnberg

1.64

-0.34scores less than expected

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

Hertha BSC-0.34scores less

1. FC Nürnberg-0.03on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha BSC ↓

1. FC Nürnberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Hertha BSC or draw

66%

Hertha BSC or 1. FC Nürnberg

75%

Draw or 1. FC Nürnberg

58%

Winning margin

Hertha BSC wins by 2+

20%

1. FC Nürnberg wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Hertha BSC 1+ goals

78%

Hertha BSC 2+ goals

45%

Hertha BSC 3+ goals

20%

1. FC Nürnberg 1+ goals

74%

1. FC Nürnberg 2+ goals

39%

1. FC Nürnberg 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Hertha BSC (draw refunded)

55%

1. FC Nürnberg (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha BSC at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.47 · 12 matches

1. FC Nürnberg away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.64 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha BSC attack 1.42 + 1. FC Nürnberg defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.53

1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.23 + Hertha BSC defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hertha BSC scores more

42%

level

25%

1. FC Nürnberg scores more

34%

Hertha BSC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hertha BSC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

J. Brekalo

Hertha BSC · M

9.2

Match Events

20'

J. Brekalo↳ J. Dudziak

45'

T. Baack↳ J. von der Hitz

46'

T. Janisch← J. von der Hitz

62'

P. Scobel← A. Grimaldi

64'

M. Cuisance← K. Sessa

64'

L. Schuler← D. Kownacki

64'

M. Winkler← F. Reese

76'

J. Eitschberger← N. Kolbe

76'

M. Biron← R. Nzingoula

79'

Fabio Gruber

83'

S. Gronning← J. Dudziak

86'

Finn Ole Becker

88'

J. Brekalo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Hertha1.

Overview

55%Possession45%

14Total Shots5

0.86Expected Goals (xG)0.88

3Corners6

11Fouls13

Shots

14Total Shots5

5On Target1

8Off Target3

1Blocked1

11Inside Box3

3Outside Box2

Passing

55%Possession45%

449Total Passes365

376Accurate Passes289

84%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

-1.03Goals Prevented-1.03

Discipline

11Fouls13

0Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0

2. Bundesliga: Hertha BSC 2–1 1. FC Nürnberg

Hertha BSC beat 1. FC Nürnberg 2-1 in 2. Bundesliga on March 1, 2026.

Goals: J. Brekalo (20', 88'), T. Baack (45').

Hertha BSC controlled possession (55%) and registered 14 shots to 5.

The match was played at Olympiastadion in Berlin.

Hertha BSC vs 1. FC Nürnberg — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

2. Bundesliga: Hertha BSC 2–1 1. FC Nürnberg