Hertha Berlin 3–3 FC Nurnberg: Result & Stats

Hertha Berlin

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

FC Nurnberg

H. Tabaković 56' (pen), 54'

M. Winkler 44'

C. Uzun 46', 14'

L. Schleimer 33'

3/30/2024

2. Bundesliga · Round 27Olympiastadion Berlin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Hertha Berlin42%

×Draw25%

FC Nurnberg34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hertha BerlinExpected goals in this matchFC Nurnberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.35

Hertha Berlin

1.53

FC Nurnberg

1.35

Hertha Berlin creates 13% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

1.42

creates per match

1.23

1.47

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Hertha Berlin

1.42

FC Nurnberg

1.23

allows per match

Hertha Berlin

1.47

FC Nurnberg

1.64

-0.34scores less than expected

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

Hertha Berlin-0.34scores less

FC Nurnberg-0.03on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha Berlin ↓

FC Nurnberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Hertha Berlin or draw

66%

Hertha Berlin or FC Nurnberg

75%

Draw or FC Nurnberg

58%

Winning margin

Hertha Berlin wins by 2+

20%

FC Nurnberg wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Hertha Berlin 1+ goals

78%

Hertha Berlin 2+ goals

45%

Hertha Berlin 3+ goals

20%

FC Nurnberg 1+ goals

74%

FC Nurnberg 2+ goals

39%

FC Nurnberg 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Hertha Berlin (draw refunded)

55%

FC Nurnberg (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha Berlin at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.47 · 12 matches

FC Nurnberg away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.64 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha Berlin attack 1.42 + FC Nurnberg defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.53

FC Nurnberg attack 1.23 + Hertha Berlin defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hertha Berlin scores more

42%

level

25%

FC Nurnberg scores more

34%

Hertha Berlin at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hertha Berlin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

42

C. Uzun

FC Nurnberg · F

8.6

Match Events

7'

14'

16'

33'

44'

46'

F. Niederlechner← I. Maza

46'

A. Barkok← J. Dudziak

46'

C. Uzun↳ J. Castrop

54'

H. Tabaković↳ J. Kenny

56'

H. TabakovićPenalty

57'

D. Zeefuik← P. Klemens

63'

Marten Winkler

65'

P. Dárdai← M. Winkler

65'

E. Wekesser← B. Goller

76'

J. Hungbo← K. Okunuki

80'

Florian Niederlechner

82'

S. Prevljak← J. Kenny

83'

Palkó Dárdai

85'

T. Duman← C. Uzun

85'

Iván Márquez← J. Horn

90+3'

Taylan Duman

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HerthaFC

Overview

46%Possession54%

19Total Shots17

5Corners2

15Fouls7

Shots

19Total Shots17

7On Target8

2Off Target4

10Blocked5

13Inside Box8

6Outside Box9

Passing

46%Possession54%

435Total Passes526

374Accurate Passes467

86%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls7

4Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2

Match Recap: Hertha Berlin vs FC Nurnberg

Hertha Berlin and FC Nurnberg drew 3-3 in 2. Bundesliga on March 30, 2024.

Goals: C. Uzun (14', 46'), L. Schleimer (33'), M. Winkler (44'), H. Tabaković (54', 56' pen).

FC Nurnberg controlled possession (54%) and registered 17 shots to 19.

The match was played at Olympiastadion Berlin in Berlin.

Hertha Berlin vs FC Nurnberg — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Hertha Berlin vs FC Nurnberg