1. FC Nürnberg 0–3 Hertha BSC: Result & Stats

1. FC Nürnberg

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Hertha BSC

D. Kownacki 85'

M. Cuisance 41'

M. Winkler 2'

9/28/2025

2. Bundesliga · Round 7Max-Morlock-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

1. FC Nürnberg46%

×Draw24%

Hertha BSC30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

1. FC NürnbergExpected goals in this matchHertha BSC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.30

1. FC Nürnberg

1.67

Hertha BSC

1.30

1. FC Nürnberg creates 28% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

1.38

creates per match

1.54

1.06

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

1. FC Nürnberg

1.38

Hertha BSC

1.54

allows per match

1. FC Nürnberg

1.06

Hertha BSC

1.96

+0.29scores more than expected

finishing

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

1. FC Nürnberg+0.29scores more

Hertha BSC+0.19scores more

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. FC Nürnberg ↓

Hertha BSC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

1. FC Nürnberg or draw

70%

1. FC Nürnberg or Hertha BSC

76%

Draw or Hertha BSC

54%

Winning margin

1. FC Nürnberg wins by 2+

24%

Hertha BSC wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

1. FC Nürnberg 1+ goals

81%

1. FC Nürnberg 2+ goals

50%

1. FC Nürnberg 3+ goals

23%

Hertha BSC 1+ goals

73%

Hertha BSC 2+ goals

37%

Hertha BSC 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

1. FC Nürnberg (draw refunded)

61%

Hertha BSC (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. FC Nürnberg at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.06 · 9 matches

Hertha BSC away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.96 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.38 + Hertha BSC defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.67

Hertha BSC attack 1.54 + 1. FC Nürnberg defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

1. FC Nürnberg scores more

46%

level

24%

Hertha BSC scores more

30%

1. FC Nürnberg at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "1. FC Nürnberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

T. Ernst

Hertha BSC · G

8.0

Match Events

2'

M. Winkler↳ F. Reese

37'

A. Stepanov← A. Markhiev

41'

45+5'

58'

59'

62'

L. Jensen← K. Eichhorn

63'

D. Kownacki← S. Gronning

70'

T. Janisch← L. Lochoshvili

70'

A. Grimaldi← P. Demba

77'

Tim Drexler

82'

B. Mamuzah Lum← M. Cuisance

85'

D. Kownacki↳ F. Reese

88'

J. Eitschberger← M. Dardai

89'

M. Biron← M. A. Zoma

89'

M. Krattenmacher←

90+2'

Eryk Grzywacz

90'

E. Grzywacz← F. O. Becker

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

1.Hertha

Overview

63%Possession37%

12Total Shots14

6Corners1

12Fouls22

Shots

12Total Shots14

4On Target4

2Off Target5

6Blocked5

8Inside Box11

4Outside Box3

Passing

63%Possession37%

483Total Passes285

404Accurate Passes221

84%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls22

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides5