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Hertha BSC U19 vs Chemnitzer FC U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Hertha BSC U19
Hertha BSC U19
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Chemnitzer FC U19
Chemnitzer FC U19
12/6/2025U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 14Olympiapark-Amateurstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Hertha BSC U1964%
×Draw17%
Chemnitzer FC U1919%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hertha BSC U19
2.81
Chemnitzer FC U19
1.48

Hertha BSC U19 creates 90% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 52 away

creates per match

Hertha BSC U19
2.84
Chemnitzer FC U19
1.38

allows per match

Hertha BSC U19
1.59
Chemnitzer FC U19
2.79

finishing

Hertha BSC U19+0.00on par
Chemnitzer FC U19+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha BSC U19 ↓

Chemnitzer FC U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Hertha BSC U19 or draw
81%
Hertha BSC U19 or Chemnitzer FC U19
83%
Draw or Chemnitzer FC U19
36%

Winning margin

Hertha BSC U19 wins by 2+
44%
Chemnitzer FC U19 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Hertha BSC U19 1+ goals
94%
Hertha BSC U19 2+ goals
76%
Hertha BSC U19 3+ goals
52%
Chemnitzer FC U19 1+ goals
77%
Chemnitzer FC U19 2+ goals
43%
Chemnitzer FC U19 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Hertha BSC U19 (draw refunded)
78%
Chemnitzer FC U19 (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha BSC U19 at home — creates 2.84, concedes 1.59 · 81 matches

Chemnitzer FC U19 away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.79 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha BSC U19 attack 2.84 + Chemnitzer FC U19 defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.81

Chemnitzer FC U19 attack 1.38 + Hertha BSC U19 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Hertha BSC U19 scores more
64%
level
17%
Chemnitzer FC U19 scores more
19%

Hertha BSC U19 at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Hertha BSC U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Hertha
Chemnitzer
M. Hartmann
Manager: M. Hartmann
T. Wappler
Manager: T. Wappler

U19 Bundesliga: Hertha BSC U19 2–3 Chemnitzer FC U19

Chemnitzer FC U19 beat Hertha BSC U19 3-2 in U19 Bundesliga on December 6, 2025.

The match was played at Olympiapark-Amateurstadion in Berlin.