Chemnitzer FC U19 3–1 Hertha BSC U19

Chemnitzer FC U19

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Hertha BSC U19

M. Roscher 24'

P. Kämpfer 17'

J. Jusić 15'

L. Popp 26'

3/5/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 15Stadion im Sportforum Chemnitz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Chemnitzer FC U1924%

×Draw20%

Hertha BSC U1956%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chemnitzer FC U19Expected goals in this matchHertha BSC U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

2.30

Chemnitzer FC U19

1.44

Hertha BSC U19

2.30

Hertha BSC U19 creates 60% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 78 away

1.45

creates per match

2.46

2.15

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Chemnitzer FC U19

1.45

Hertha BSC U19

2.46

allows per match

Chemnitzer FC U19

2.15

Hertha BSC U19

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chemnitzer FC U19+0.00on par

Hertha BSC U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chemnitzer FC U19 ↓

Hertha BSC U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–16%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Chemnitzer FC U19 or draw

44%

Chemnitzer FC U19 or Hertha BSC U19

80%

Draw or Hertha BSC U19

76%

Winning margin

Chemnitzer FC U19 wins by 2+

10%

Hertha BSC U19 wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Chemnitzer FC U19 1+ goals

76%

Chemnitzer FC U19 2+ goals

42%

Chemnitzer FC U19 3+ goals

18%

Hertha BSC U19 1+ goals

90%

Hertha BSC U19 2+ goals

67%

Hertha BSC U19 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Chemnitzer FC U19 (draw refunded)

29%

Hertha BSC U19 (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chemnitzer FC U19 at home — creates 1.45, concedes 2.15 · 53 matches

Hertha BSC U19 away — creates 2.46, concedes 1.42 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chemnitzer FC U19 attack 1.45 + Hertha BSC U19 defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.44

Hertha BSC U19 attack 2.46 + Chemnitzer FC U19 defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Chemnitzer FC U19 scores more

24%

level

20%

Hertha BSC U19 scores more

56%

Hertha BSC U19 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Hertha BSC U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

17'

24'

26'

46'

T. Seidel← F. Heidler

46'

D. Häßler← Q. Seidel

61'

K. Hadziavdic← D. Ajvazi

69'

R. Riesen← P. Kämpfer

82'

Y. Luib← J. Dittrich

90+1'

M. Weidauer← M. Roscher

Chemnitzer

Hertha

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Roscher

⚽

▼

Kämpfer

Manager: J. Stephan

46'▲T. Seidel←▼F. Heidler

69'▲R. Riesen←▼P. Kämpfer

82'▲Y. Luib←▼J. Dittrich

90+1'▲M. Weidauer←▼M. Roscher

Chemnitzer FC U19 substitutes

SeidelRiesenLuibWeidauerDorfsPawlettaKortüm

Manager: M. Hartmann

46'▲D. Häßler←▼Q. Seidel

61'▲K. Hadziavdic←▼D. Ajvazi

Hertha BSC U19 substitutes

HäßlerHadziavdicPreljevićKühnAkanRölke