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Chemnitzer FC U19 vs Hertha BSC U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Chemnitzer FC U19
Chemnitzer FC U19
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Hertha BSC U19
Hertha BSC U19
T. Zornic 81'
K. Todoroviç 50'
9/20/2025U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 7Stadion im Sportforum Chemnitz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Chemnitzer FC U1923%
×Draw20%
Hertha BSC U1957%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chemnitzer FC U19
1.42
Hertha BSC U19
2.31

Hertha BSC U19 creates 63% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 78 away

creates per match

Chemnitzer FC U19
1.43
Hertha BSC U19
2.46

allows per match

Chemnitzer FC U19
2.17
Hertha BSC U19
1.42

finishing

Chemnitzer FC U19+0.00on par
Hertha BSC U19+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chemnitzer FC U19 ↓

Hertha BSC U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Chemnitzer FC U19 or draw
43%
Chemnitzer FC U19 or Hertha BSC U19
80%
Draw or Hertha BSC U19
77%

Winning margin

Chemnitzer FC U19 wins by 2+
10%
Hertha BSC U19 wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Chemnitzer FC U19 1+ goals
76%
Chemnitzer FC U19 2+ goals
41%
Chemnitzer FC U19 3+ goals
17%
Hertha BSC U19 1+ goals
90%
Hertha BSC U19 2+ goals
67%
Hertha BSC U19 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Chemnitzer FC U19 (draw refunded)
29%
Hertha BSC U19 (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chemnitzer FC U19 at home — creates 1.43, concedes 2.17 · 54 matches

Hertha BSC U19 away — creates 2.46, concedes 1.42 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chemnitzer FC U19 attack 1.43 + Hertha BSC U19 defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.42

Hertha BSC U19 attack 2.46 + Chemnitzer FC U19 defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Chemnitzer FC U19 scores more
23%
level
20%
Hertha BSC U19 scores more
57%

Hertha BSC U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Hertha BSC U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

50'
K. Todoroviç
81'
T. Zornic
Chemnitzer
Hertha
T. Wappler
Manager: T. Wappler
M. Hartmann
Manager: M. Hartmann

U19 Bundesliga: Chemnitzer FC U19 0–2 Hertha BSC U19

Hertha BSC U19 beat Chemnitzer FC U19 2-0 in U19 Bundesliga on September 20, 2025.

Goals: K. Todoroviç (50'), T. Zornic (81').

The match was played at Stadion im Sportforum Chemnitz in Chemnitz.