Heracles 2–0 Emmen: Result & Stats

Heracles

FT

2 – 0

Emmen

7/17/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Heracles56%

×Draw21%

Emmen23%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HeraclesExpected goals in this matchEmmen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.25

Heracles

2.08

Emmen

1.25

Heracles creates 66% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

1.83

creates per match

1.83

0.67

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Heracles

1.83

Emmen

1.83

allows per match

Heracles

0.67

Emmen

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Heracles+0.00on par

Emmen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heracles ↓

Emmen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Heracles or draw

77%

Heracles or Emmen

79%

Draw or Emmen

44%

Winning margin

Heracles wins by 2+

34%

Emmen wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Heracles 1+ goals

87%

Heracles 2+ goals

61%

Heracles 3+ goals

34%

Emmen 1+ goals

71%

Emmen 2+ goals

36%

Emmen 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Heracles (draw refunded)

71%

Emmen (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heracles at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

Emmen away — creates 1.83, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heracles attack 1.83 + Emmen defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.08

Emmen attack 1.83 + Heracles defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Heracles scores more

56%

level

21%

Emmen scores more

23%

Heracles at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Heracles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Heracles

Emmen

Manager: Vincent Heilmann

Heracles substitutes

KeijzerBlokhuisZeevalkinkWijnrederHamamiogluVicenteWierikWruschHauswirthKaamBrunsMannyGilstKulenovicEngels

Manager: Menno van Dam

Emmen substitutes

NorderVouteBaronMukehCarusHojabrpourVeldhuisNtiharirizwaSunderHuijzer

Friendlies Clubs: Heracles 2–0 Emmen

Heracles beat Emmen 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 17, 2026.

Heracles vs Emmen — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Friendlies Clubs: Heracles 2–0 Emmen