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Emmen vs Heracles — Eredivisie 2026

Emmen
Emmen
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Heracles
Heracles
M. de Leeuw 90+1', 89', 58' (pen)
R. Vloet 82' (pen)
4/25/2021EredivisieEredivisie · Round 30De Oude Meerdijk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Emmen51%
×Draw23%
Heracles26%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Emmen
1.78
Heracles
1.21

Emmen creates 47% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 114 away

creates per match

Emmen
1.42
Heracles
0.78

allows per match

Emmen
1.64
Heracles
2.14

finishing

Emmen+0.00on par
Heracles+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emmen ↓

Heracles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Emmen or draw
74%
Emmen or Heracles
77%
Draw or Heracles
49%

Winning margin

Emmen wins by 2+
28%
Heracles wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Emmen 1+ goals
83%
Emmen 2+ goals
53%
Emmen 3+ goals
26%
Heracles 1+ goals
70%
Heracles 2+ goals
34%
Heracles 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Emmen (draw refunded)
66%
Heracles (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emmen at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.64 · 67 matches

Heracles away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.14 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emmen attack 1.42 + Heracles defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.78

Heracles attack 0.78 + Emmen defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Emmen scores more
51%
level
23%
Heracles scores more
26%

Emmen at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Emmen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
M. de LeeuwEmmenEmmen · F
9.5

Match Events

36'
Luca De La Torre
58'
M. de LeeuwPenalty
63'
A. Kutucu← S. Bakış
63'
I. Azzaoui← K. Jakobsen
70'
P. Gladon← L. Adžić
73'
A. Szőke← D. Burgzorg
77'
H. Ben Moussa← L. Bernadou
80'
Ahmed KutucuGoal cancelled
82'
Michael Verrips
82'
R. VloetPenalty
85'
O. Kiomourtzoglou← R. Vloet
89'
M. de Leeuw↳ M. Araujo
90+4'
R. de Vos← S. Peña
90+4'
D. La Torre← J. Vlak
90+1'
M. de Leeuw

Possession

57%Emmen

Shots

15Emmen

Pass accuracy

52%Emmen

Statistics

EmmenHeracles
Overview
57%Possession43%
15Total Shots8
7Corners5
9Fouls7
Shots
15Total Shots8
5On Target4
4Off Target2
6Blocked2
10Inside Box5
5Outside Box3
Passing
57%Possession43%
511Total Passes389
421Accurate Passes299
82%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls7
1Yellow Cards1
1Offsides0

Eredivisie: Emmen 3–1 Heracles

Emmen beat Heracles 3-1 in Eredivisie on April 25, 2021.

Goals: M. de Leeuw (58' pen, 89', 90+1'), R. Vloet (82' pen).

Emmen controlled possession (57%) and registered 15 shots to 8.

The match was played at De Oude Meerdijk in Emmen.