Heracles 4–0 Emmen: Result & Stats | Eredivisie

Heracles

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Emmen

R. Vloet 87'

S. Bakış 64', 44', 26'

1/12/2021

Eredivisie · Round 16Erve Asito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Heracles53%

×Draw22%

Emmen25%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HeraclesExpected goals in this matchEmmen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.24

Heracles

1.92

Emmen

1.24

Heracles creates 55% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 64 away

1.70

creates per match

0.86

1.62

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Heracles

1.70

Emmen

0.86

allows per match

Heracles

1.62

Emmen

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Heracles+0.00on par

Emmen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heracles ↓

Emmen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Heracles or draw

75%

Heracles or Emmen

78%

Draw or Emmen

47%

Winning margin

Heracles wins by 2+

30%

Emmen wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Heracles 1+ goals

85%

Heracles 2+ goals

57%

Heracles 3+ goals

30%

Emmen 1+ goals

71%

Emmen 2+ goals

35%

Emmen 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Heracles (draw refunded)

68%

Emmen (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heracles at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.62 · 115 matches

Emmen away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.14 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heracles attack 1.70 + Emmen defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.92

Emmen attack 0.86 + Heracles defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Heracles scores more

53%

level

22%

Emmen scores more

25%

Heracles at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Heracles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

R. Vloet

Heracles · M

9.3

Match Events

19'

N. Bakker← G. Bijl

26'

S. Bakış

28'

Miguel Araujo

44'

S. Bakış↳ S. van der Water

45'

Lucas Bernadou

46'

N. Laursen← A. Jansen

46'

J. Vlak← L. Bernadou

64'

S. Bakış↳ R. Vloet

70'

M. Leš← M. Knoester

70'

J. Hardeveld← G. Quagliata

71'

N. Fadiga← T. Breukers

77'

D. Avdijaj← M. de Leeuw

77'

H. Ben Moussa← K. Veendorp

80'

K. Jakobsen← S. van der Water

87'

R. Agca← R. Vloet

87'

R. Vloet↳ N. Fadiga

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HeraclesEmmen

Overview

50%Possession50%

20Total Shots8

12Corners4

8Fouls13

Shots

20Total Shots8

11On Target1

3Off Target5

6Blocked2

13Inside Box5

7Outside Box3

Passing

50%Possession50%

492Total Passes483

411Accurate Passes381

84%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves7

Discipline

8Fouls13

0Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2