Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon

Henan Jianye

Preview

11:35

Qingdao Jonoon

7/17/2026

Super League · Round 19Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium

Big match

62%

Henan Jianye

model favours

62%19%19%

Qingdao Jonoon score first in only 15% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1

likely score

68%

over 2.5 goals

63%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Henan Jianye62%

×Draw19%

Qingdao Jonoon19%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Henan JianyeExpected goals in this matchQingdao Jonoon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

1.20

Henan Jianye

2.33

Qingdao Jonoon

1.20

Henan Jianye creates 94% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

2.28

creates per match

1.19

1.21

allows per match

2.38

creates per match

Henan Jianye

2.28

Qingdao Jonoon

1.19

allows per match

Henan Jianye

1.21

Qingdao Jonoon

2.38

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

-0.08on par

finishing

Henan Jianye-0.11scores less

Qingdao Jonoon-0.08on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Henan Jianye ↓

Qingdao Jonoon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Henan Jianye or draw

81%

Henan Jianye or Qingdao Jonoon

81%

Draw or Qingdao Jonoon

38%

Winning margin

Henan Jianye wins by 2+

40%

Qingdao Jonoon wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Henan Jianye 1+ goals

90%

Henan Jianye 2+ goals

67%

Henan Jianye 3+ goals

41%

Qingdao Jonoon 1+ goals

70%

Qingdao Jonoon 2+ goals

34%

Qingdao Jonoon 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Henan Jianye (draw refunded)

77%

Qingdao Jonoon (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Henan Jianye at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.21 · 6 matches

Qingdao Jonoon away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.38 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Henan Jianye attack 2.28 + Qingdao Jonoon defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.33

Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.19 + Henan Jianye defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Henan Jianye scores more

62%

level

19%

Qingdao Jonoon scores more

19%

Henan Jianye at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Henan Jianye will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Henan Jianye have scored in 8 games running
Both teams score in 77% of Qingdao Jonoon’s matches
47% of Qingdao Jonoon’s goals come after the 75th minute
Both sides lean high-scoring (64% and 62% over 2.5)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Henan Jianye

Defensively solid

Qingdao Jonoon

Balanced

50%Possession47%

79%Pass accuracy79%

13.1Shots13.3

1.75xGBiggest gap1.34

Henan JianyeQingdao Jonoon

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

3

Henan Jianye

1

Draws

1

Qingdao Jonoon

Avg goals: 2BTTS: 40%

0–11–13–12–01–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Jianye

LLWLW

Jonoon

LDWDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Henan Jianye face Qingdao Jonoon (Super League)

Super League returns with Henan Jianye hosting Qingdao Jonoon. Match starts July 17, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Henan Jianye host Qingdao Jonoon at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon — Super League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Insights

Style Matchup

Head-to-head

Head to Head

Henan Jianye face Qingdao Jonoon (Super League)