Helsingborg 1–1 Degerfors IF: Result & Stats

Helsingborg

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Degerfors IF

T. Silverholt 33' (pen)

E. Lindell 51'

8/13/2024

Superettan · Round 18Olympia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Helsingborg44%

×Draw26%

Degerfors IF30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HelsingborgExpected goals in this matchDegerfors IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.14

Helsingborg

1.46

Degerfors IF

1.14

Helsingborg creates 28% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

1.46

creates per match

1.02

1.26

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Helsingborg

1.46

Degerfors IF

1.02

allows per match

Helsingborg

1.26

Degerfors IF

1.47

-0.71scores less than expected

finishing

+0.65scores more than expected

finishing

Helsingborg-0.71scores less

Degerfors IF+0.65scores more

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Helsingborg ↓

Degerfors IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Helsingborg or draw

70%

Helsingborg or Degerfors IF

74%

Draw or Degerfors IF

56%

Winning margin

Helsingborg wins by 2+

22%

Degerfors IF wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Helsingborg 1+ goals

77%

Helsingborg 2+ goals

43%

Helsingborg 3+ goals

18%

Degerfors IF 1+ goals

68%

Degerfors IF 2+ goals

32%

Degerfors IF 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Helsingborg (draw refunded)

60%

Degerfors IF (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Helsingborg at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.26 · 8 matches

Degerfors IF away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.47 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Helsingborg attack 1.46 + Degerfors IF defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.46

Degerfors IF attack 1.02 + Helsingborg defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Helsingborg scores more

44%

level

26%

Degerfors IF scores more

30%

Helsingborg at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Helsingborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

N. Girmai Netabay

Degerfors IF · M

8.2

Match Events

16'

Nasiru Moro

33'

T. SilverholtPenalty

51'

E. Lindell

55'

Adam Hellborg

64'

Kevin Holmén

67'

M. Rasmussen← A. Svanbäck

73'

A. Fisic← D. Vukojević

73'

L. Kassi← J. Mårtensson

88'

A. Kabashi← B. Acquah

88'

C. Chidi← T. Silverholt

88'

T. Grönborg← E. Lindell

88'

E. Pihlström← A. Hedén Lindskog

90+1'

B. Örn← W. Loeper

90+1'

W. Westerlund← A. Hellborg

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HelsingborgDegerfors

Overview

54%Possession46%

14Total Shots13

2.66Expected Goals (xG)1.34

5Corners7

12Fouls9

Shots

14Total Shots13

4On Target3

5Off Target5

5Blocked5

10Inside Box8

4Outside Box5

Passing

54%Possession46%

459Total Passes363

381Accurate Passes291

83%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls9

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

3Offsides2

Superettan: Helsingborg 1–1 Degerfors IF

Helsingborg and Degerfors IF drew 1-1 in Superettan on August 13, 2024.

Goals: T. Silverholt (33' pen), E. Lindell (51').

Helsingborg controlled possession (54%) and registered 14 shots to 13.

The match was played at Olympia in Helsingborg.

Helsingborg vs Degerfors IF — Superettan 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Superettan: Helsingborg 1–1 Degerfors IF